Posted by Alan Hull on 24th December 2007
I just want to wish everyone a merry Christmas and a happy holliday season. Spend time with loved ones and enjoy the time you have together.
Regular posting will be put on hold for about a week as I will be going on a skii vacation in Mammoth.
I will see you all in the year 2008!
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 21st December 2007
The Detroit Tigers have agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis on a 3-year $29 million contract extension through the 2010 season. There is also an incentive clause which will pay Willis an additional $500,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award. In 2007, Willis made $6.45 million with the Florida Marlins and was set to get a raise in arbitration. Willis would have been a free agent following the 2009 season.
Willis, 25, is coming off of the worst year of his career, pitching 205.1 innings with a 5.17 ERA with 146 strikeouts, 87 walks and 29 home runs with a 10 - 15 record. However, in five seasons with the Marlins, Willis is 68-54 with a 3.78 ERA in 1022.2 IP, with 757 strikeouts and 344 walks.
With Willis, the Detroit Tiger’s rotation will look like this for 2008:
Justin Verlander, RHP -200 IP - 3.80 ERA - 160 K - 70 BB
Jeremy Bonderman, RHP - 180 IP - 4.00 ERA - 180 IP - 60 BB
Dontrelle Willis, LHP - 200 IP - 4.50 ERA - 140 IP - 70 BB
Kenny Rogers, LHP - 80 IP - 4.60 ERA - 40 K - 20 BB
Nate Robertson, LHP - 160 IP - 4.80 ERA - 90 K - 50 BB
Justin Verlander took a step forward in 2007, increasing his K/9 from just shy of 6 to 8.2. That’s what happens when you throw a fastball that sits 95 - 98 mph and hits 100 mph with the slow curve and now a decent circle change. If he remains healthy again in 2008, he will be one to watch. Bonderman, still only 25 years-old, is coming off a disappointing 2007 season that was affected by inconsistency and an elbow injury. At worst, his pitching should be in line with his 2005-06 level. He may finally put it all together this season and ascend to the true ace many (including myself) believe he will be but the injury is bad news. This season, Kenny Rogers will be 43 years-old and only pitched 63 innings in 2007, so they’ll need him to eat up some innings along with Robertson at the back of the rotation because they don’t have many viable options.
Willis is a polarizing pitcher–he is viewed with a great deal of skepticism amongst the statistical community, but he is popular in the media as a former 20-game winner and a major contributor to the Marlins 2003 World Series. I tend to take somewhat of a middle ground when it comes to Willis. Is he the superstar he was in 2005? Surely not, but he isn’t as bad as his numbers reflected last season either. He’s young, durable so far and has decent stuff and is a lefty. He’s an asset to the Tigers even with the extension. After all, he’d probably have been the best pitcher on the market this off-season including Curt Schilling because of innings pitched (although there are no bad one-year deals) and they got him below market value through only his age 28 season.
More importantly, he will step into a team with a much stronger defense than he had last season with with the Marlins without defensive butchers like Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla up the middle and Miguel Cabrera in the infield (oh, wait–Miggy is still there). He also has Granderson patrolling center–one of the better defensive center fielders in the game. Poor defense helps explain his 3.29 BABIP (see McCracken) in 2007, which should see a decline in 08.
My only complaint is they should explore extending Miguel Cabrera before any other player. The deal was a steal but that doesn’t change the endgame. That is a must for them but it may not happen this season.
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball, steroids | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 20th December 2007
Curt Schilling calls out another great, after A-Rod (bush-league), Barry Bonds (cheater) and now Roger Clemens (cheater). I saw the story on ESPN and had to read the article before jumping to conclusions, but I went in pissed on Roger’s behalf. After reading it, I have to admit, I agree with him on a lot of points. If anyone was accused falsely, they need to take it to court. NO ONE HAS, ever. The article is very well written and makes a compelling argument. Definitely worth a read. I truly hope he never gets connected to HGH, even if with a prescription and an injury. Schilling, like Clemens, was famous for intensive off-season work-out programs that is often attributed to Clemens.
This whole steroid thing is ugly, but it’s something everyone has always known about. The Mitchell report didn’t tell us anything new, except Roger Clemens. The issue was staring us in the face, even Clemens. That one hurt, but it makes sense and it proves anyone could have done it, even once.
Our generations best hitter and pitcher got a little extra help.
I want to know, if an HGH prescription is legal, if used for medical healing purposes, then is HGH use before 2005 okay? It shouldn’t be promoted but its not illegal, like buying steroids off the black market or shady distributors like BALCO.
—————–
Good read: Baseball Analyst’s Al Doyle points out why all but a handful of teams should avoid spending big money to make marginal improvement. I say save the money and invest it in the draft like Tampa has.
Andrew at True Blue LA explains why some teams can.
—————–
I know this one has been linked a lot, but DRaysBay, a site I’ve begun to read and admire in the SB nation, has an interview with Robert “Voros” McCracken, formerly a big league consultant with the Boston Red Sox.
Better still is McCracken’s article on Defense Independent Pitching Statistics from Baseball Prospectus (circa 2001), which is a classic and a groundbreaking piece. If you haven’t read this one, or aren’t aware of these basic ideas, you’re in for an eye-opener.
————
Let’s get some talent evaluation into the mix: John Sickels of Minor League Ball scouts Jacoby Ellsbury, Cameron Maybin and grades both Yankee Clemens-look-a-like Joba Chamberlain (not roids, just looks) and Clay Buchholz “A” prospects.
Who do you think is 1A?
A: I think Buchholz has proven himself for longer, but the ballpark will even out their numbers on the surface in 2008. Long term, it’s anyone’s guess.
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 19th December 2007
Talks have been on hold since we last checked in but it seems the New York Yankees have backed out of the deadline they placed in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. That was quick. There are several trades on the table, or at least believed to be on the table. What happens if the Yankees or the Red Sox–pretty much the two heaviest hitters in the American League–acquire Santana? A look at each scenario with projections.
New York Yankees
Provided they don’t trade Ian Kennedy, he would step in if something goes wrong. As a college finesse pitcher, he would represent a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter. In limited time, I see Kennedy as a healthy young arm with marginal stuff–fast ball maxes out at 92 mph / sits in the 88-90 mph range.
Ian Kennedy, RHP - 120 IP - 4.20 ERA - 80 K 30 BB
That’s a good rotation with a little depth. Not to mention, the Yankees could easily acquire a marginal starting pitcher and throw money at it. It’s a nice luxury to have.
Should the Red Sox get Santana, their rotation would look like this:
Having Santana is almost excessive since Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester would be bumped from the rotation in the process. The Red Sox may be paying too high a price if they end up wasting two above average starters for a season. With either Wakefield or Lester in the rotation, and the other waiting for Curt Schilling to miss time, lose money–he has a weight / time lost clause. Bad idea on Schilling’s part, but whatever keeps you motivated. Don’t forget, Beckett also has a history of arm trouble.
Tim Wakefield, RHP - 100 IP - 4.80 ERA - 80 K - 60 BB
John Lester, LHP - 120 IP - 4.20 ERA - 90 K - 40 BB
Should a trade go through, the Yankees wouldn’t lose much offensively in a Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and one of a couple of good prospects likes Alan Horne or Jose Tabata, but they would have to pick either Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon or Bobby Abreu to take a stab at center field or offer Mike Cameron a short deal and deal Matsui or Damon–who knows? I’d settle with Damon in center but it wouldn’t be pretty.
If the Red Sox pull the trigger, they’d lose Jacoby Ellsbury in center when their hope was to trade Coco Crisp instead. They’re lucky they won’t lose out at a defensively important position in a ballpark with a lot of run scoring. Ellsbury has won the love of Sox fans after tearing it up down the stretch and hitting well in the playoffs for a World Series team. He is an athletic speedy potential lead-off hitter with some possibility for power but not much.
Jacoby Ellsbury, L - .300/.360/.380 - 8 HR - 40 SB
Coco Crisp, S - .290/.340/.380 - 10 HR - 28 SB
Ellsbury has always had very healthy walk and strikeout rates, which bodes well for his potential to hit and improve his plate discipline. If he remains with the club, he will lead off for them a large portion of the time, combining with Kevin Youkilis or JD Drew to provide a potent 1-2 punch. I still like Coco Crisp. I might be alone, but I think he still can be a good hitter with all of Fenway park at his disposal. He can hit a lot of doubles and triples. Should Ellsbury be traded, he will hit 8th or 9th but hopefully not be as bad as he has with Boston offensively. Same goes for Julio Lugo.
Either team would give themselves a huge boost with the addition of Santana, but it would be costly. What would happen to the Twins if they pull the trigger with either the Yankees or the Red Sox? They’d still be a ways from contention but it would offer them a start. First the Yankees, then the Red Sox:
Minnesota Twins
That’s not a bad rotation provided the young arms can hold up under increased pressure. Most notably, Francisco Liriano (remember him?), the lefty who took the AL by storm in 2006 but got hurt before he could regress. He missed all of 2007 with Tommy John surgery, but should pitch in 2008. It’s only a question of how much and how well.
Offensively, the Twins wouldn’t gain much trading with the Yankees as Melky Cabrera is hardly a star. He would fill in and play center field but he won’t dramatically improve an offense that doesn’t have much sock. Should the Twins trade with the Red Sox, they would add a presence at the top of the order with Ellsbury.
Minnesota Twins
Here is the solution to the Nick Punto problem: don’t play him. Cuddyer can play third. He won’t be good but he won’t be Punto. I’m not sure Casilla will get the starting job off the bat nor am I sure he’d bat second. At worst, they can shift Mauer or maybe even Delmon Young to hit second. Everett will be a good addition either as a defensive player or a backup option. Lowrie would surely start the year in AAA. That’s not a terrible team but I’m not sure about Monroe or what they do if he fails.
I don’t want to project Delmon Young. There are still holes in his game but he is a future superstar. If pressed, I’m optimistically shooting for 25 bombs for the slugging right fielder. The sooner he learns to lay off the bad pitches, the sooner he becomes a superstar. The kid can hit.
Really, if the Yankees can get away with a package that includes Hughes,Cabrera and another player like Jose Tabata, they should jump on it to stay in the race as a major player. They may have to offer more as they have yet to come to an agreement with the Twins. If the Red Sox go for it, they’d be an easy favorite to win the World Series and force the Yankees to compete with the Tigers and Indians for the Wild Card. The Twins need to wait for the best package possible and might hold onto Santana until Spring training until they find the best fit.
Things would really get interesting in the American League if the Angels were to step in and surprise us with a deal.
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 18th December 2007
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed outfielder Cliff Floyd to a 1-Year $2.75 million contract with $2 million in incentives. Floyd will get partial play-time on both outfield corners, splitting time with OF Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes and may also see some time at DH. Floyd, 35, spent 2007 with the Chicago Cubs, hitting .284/.373/.422 with 9 home runs in 282 AB.
With this move, the Rays have what looks like a nice mix of cheap, effective veteran talent to go along with a competitive core of young players with a lot of upside and this may be the season that we’ve all been expecting from them since the birth of the franchise. We’ve been watching them for a while, always thinking, “they’ll be good one of these days.” We may get a glimpse of that this season.
I’m not saying they’ll de-throne the Yankees or the Red Sox any time soon. They lack the financial resources to do that at this time. It may be possible some day should the team begin to see progress and build up a fanbase and revenue to lock up some of their young talent but for now, they should have their eyes dead-set on third place. I think they can do it.
They have to beat the always-slightly-above-average-at-all-positions Toronto Blue Jays, who generally finish in third give or take. They are always good but never have quite what it takes to make a play-off berth.
Let’s start by comparing the two teams rotations and back end of their bullpens with some loose 2008 projections provided.
Tampa Bay Rays
Bullpen
The top of the rotation is solid, with Kazmir capable of posting ace numbers. Last season, he messed around with his mechanics early in the season, but went back to just pitching and his numbers improved dramatically later on in the season. I see Shields as a candidate to regress in 2008, but his 2007 was impressive. The question will be whether or not the control-artist can maintain that high of a strikeout rate with a change-up. He won’t be walking anyone, that’s for sure. Garza will enter the rotation from the beginning of the season and the only worry will be how his arm holds up under a heavier workload, but he should be good for a 3.60 - 4.00 ERA and he will be closely monitored. With guys like Jackson and Sonnanstine, they may only remain in the rotation as long as they’re able to hold down the young guns with guys like Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee surely knocking, although the latter two are still a ways away. Beware, David Price is coming soon.
As for the bullpen, Percival is a big health risk, having missed all of 2006, but he pitched 40 quality innings in 2007, so he may be a Joe Borowski-type closer for them. I think Reyes will pitch as he did in 2007 and Wheeler will pitch more in line with his 2006 numbers since he won’t be moved around as often as in 2007. Beyond those three, they have Eduardo Morlan, who they got in the Garza-Young trade–I think he’ll step in and make an impact in 2008–but not much else.
Here is Toronto’s rotation for 2008:
Bullpen
The rotation situation in Toronto is much more dire, with Doc Halladay and McGowan as the only guys who probably won’t miss time. If Burnett can remain healthy, they will have a solid #1 - 3, but even then, without much depth in the pipeline, they can’t afford to lose anyone in the rotation. In the bullpen, if Ryan comes back strong, it will give them a presence in the bullpen that Tampa Bay can not match.
Here is a comparison of the two teams lineups. I will put together what I think their starting nine should be, again, with my projections.
Tampa Bay Rays:
It’s difficult to project some players, like Upton, who broke out in 2007, but struck out way too often to sustain that kind of success. His patience has always been good so if he continues to make strides, the sky is the limit. I see Pena as a big regression candidate and I don’t know how I feel about listing him with even as many as 32 home runs but the man can hit. I’m a huge fan of Longoria and I say, the sooner he’s up the better. He is my pick for AL Rookie of the Year. I also like Navarro, as a former Dodger, and he may just turn the corner after a strong second half in 2007. This is a team that is very well-balanced, looks pretty strong on paper and has a lot of upside.
The Toronto Blue Jays:
While Toronto’s lineup has more power than Tampa’s, they are also a very right-handed heavy team and following a lot of poor performances in 2007 from guys like Wells, Lind and Overbay, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt looking for improvement. Also, they’ll need Glaus and Thomas to stay healthy. Toronto has a lot of question marks here and if Overbay fails to recover from his injury or Wells remains his usual mediocre self, they’ll be in trouble.
Defensively, Toronto rated the best in baseball according to defensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay was dead-lastin 2007. Tampa will not be fielding the same defense this season though. With Longoria stepping in at third (I think plus defender) and Iwamura relieving Upton at second, they will be much better off. Also, the additions of Barlett and a healthy Bardelli will bolster the defense. I think the Rays have a chance to at least be in the middle of the pack.
With that, look for Tampa Bay to beat out the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008 thanks to a break out or two (I say Evan Longoria and Matt Garza) along with the rest of their core of young players, supported by a Pena and a Percival. They will be a fun team to watch in 2008.
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 17th December 2007
The Los Angeles Dodgers outbid the Seattle Mariners to attract Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda to the states, agreeing to a 3-year $35.3 million contract. Kuroda, 33, will step in to become the Dodger’s fifth starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Jason Schmidt.Kuroda is believed to be the best of a potential crop of Japanese pitchers who want to pitch in the US this year although the projections for 2008 and beyond are mixed.
From a scouting standpoint, Prospect Insider says:
“Kuroda sits 90-92 with a four-seam fastball that shows good leverage, although only a fair amount of sink. He has solid command of the fastball and is not afraid to elevate the pitch to change planes to give the hitter something else to look at, which is ideal since the 33-year-old does not throw a curve ball.
Kuroda’s fork-split is his best pitch and the one in which he will record the majority of his strikeouts. He’s capable of throwing it for strikes, but it’s much more effective as a change-of-pace offering that falls off the table into the dirt.
Kuroda is the class of the three free agents and will get the most interest but he profiles as a No. 3 at best, depending mostly on how well he adapts to the patient approach of the hitters in MLB.”
Dodger assistant general manager Logan White had this to say:
“I put my reputation on the guy. He’s legit. He has a very good delivery, an easy arm motion. He throws from a three-quarters angle. He runs his fastball anywhere from 89-95 miles per hour and stays around 93. He has a slider/cutter at 89 that has a lot of sharp, crisp bite. His out pitch is what he calls a forkball that has real diving, late action at the right-handed hitter.
He’s a strike thrower, and he’s very athletic, a Gold Glove-like fielder. The biggest thing, for me, is that with runners on base, he buckles down. He really is a warrior.”
This seems to be in line with most of what I’ve seen written on Kuroda. He has a good fastball and a good forkball as well as slider and a shuuto, which is like a changeup with screwball action. His command is said to be good, but with his stuff, we will have to see how it translates at the big league level. I do feel more comfortable seeing that Logan White really likes this guy’s stuff.
Still, his statistics in Japan were far from dominating and it will be interesting to see how it all translates in the Major Leagues. Andrew, over at True Blue LA was not convinced:
“Kuroda is a player entering his mid 30s that had trouble missing bats against inferior competition. The only starters that have come from Japan with strikeout rates worse than Kuroda’s are Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, neither of whom were exactly successful in their time in the states.”
With fairly unimpressive numbers in Japan, it is uncertain whether or not he will be able to sustain any real success at the big league level, much less justify the slightly less than $13 million a season he will be earning. Also, with Kuroda set to step in as the #5 starter, Esteban Loaiza will start the year in the bullpen, making $7.5 million. The Dodgers saw in 2007 that pitching depth really comes in handy but with the enigmatic Hong-Chih Kuo out of options and Scott Elbert and James McDonald almost ready for the bigs, the Dodgers may have been better served going with what they have.
My projection for Kuroda in 2008 goes something like this:
180 IP - 4.40 ERA - 130K - 60BB - 24HR
Even as a league average starter, Kuroda does make the Dodgers better in 2008 and his signing allows the team to improve the rotation without dealing any young players to acquire Erik Bedard or some such pitcher and the Dodgers don’t have to worry too much about money.
Sphere: Related ContentPosted in MLB, baseball | No Comments »
Posted by Alan Hull on 17th December 2007
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who were the National League West division leaders in 2007 with a league-leading 90-wins, prepared themselves to stay in the hunt with the re-vamping Los Angeles Dodgers and National League Champion Colorado Rockies for 2008 by acquiring Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for six players.
In Haren, the Diamondbacks are adding an ace to a pitching staff that was fourth in the National League with a 4.13 team ERA. Haren finished 2007 with a career best 15-9 record with a 3.07 ERA with 192 K’s and 52 BB’s in 222.2 IP, good for an ERA+ 137. Haren pitched 2007 in the pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum and with the A’s great defense behind him, so moving to Chase Field, his 2008 numbers should be more in line with his 2006-07 performance. However, last year’s improvement does represent a steady improvement Haren has been making over the past three seasons in his command and overall poise as his strikeout rate and homerun rate have steadily improved.
Haren is an aggresive pitcher who attacks hitters with a fastball that sits around 92 mph and occasionally hits 94 mph. He also features a plus split-finger fastball that sits around 86-88 mph as well as a curve ball and change up that are both decent pitches that he locates well. He will step in behind Brandon Webb to form a formidable one-two punch.
Arizona general manager, Josh Byrnes, in an interview with KTAR radio, has this to say of Haren: “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s a starter who pitches a lot of innnings, has been durable. He’s the right age and he’s under contract for three years.” Haren is owed $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and has a club option in 2010 for $6.75 million, making him a bargain for the Diamondbacks.
The six players sent to Oakland in the deal include LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, along with OF Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham and 1B Chris Carter.
In Gonzalez, the A’s are getting the Diamondbacks #1 prospect, according to Baseball America’s organizational Top-10 list. He hit .288/.336/.478 with 17 home runs in 500 ABs between AA and AAA in 2008. He rated as the organization’s best power hitting prospect, although his plate discipline still needs work. He may end up playing for Oakland as soon as early 2008. Anderson was Arizona’s second round pick in 2006 and is a few years away, but he had a strong showing in his pro debut, posting a 3.07 ERA between A ball and advanced A ball with a 125 Ks and 21 walks in 120.1 IP. He was rated by Baseball America as the D-Backs #3 prospect going into 2008 and as the organizations best control pitching prospect as well as possessing the best slider. Cunningham and Carter rated as the organization’s 7th and 8th best prospects respectively.
This move was made in conjunction with trading closer Jose Valverde to the Houston Astros for RHP Chad Qualls and 2B/OF Chris Burke. Valverde was set to get a pay raise in arbitration after leading Major League Baseball with 47 saves and was under club control for 2008-09.
In Qualls, they get a reliable bullpen arm who will be under control for Arizona for another three seasons. Burke once looked like a promising second base prospect with plus speed and great plate discipline, but he never got to take over at secondbase with incumbent Craig Biggio sticking around until this past season before retiring. He will step in as a utility player and possible replacement for Orlando Hudson, who is in his final year before hitting free agency. It will be interesting to see if Burke can reach the potential many saw for him a few years back, now 28, coming off a rough 2007 season and averaging only around 330 ABs for the past three seasons.
On trading Valverde, Byrnes had this to say:
“The two deals work hand-in-hand. The only hesitation with the Oakland deal was it reduced our depth and flexibility which served us so well. The Houston deal brough that right back. It’s hard to replace Jose Valverde, but we have the kind of guys who can do it. On some level, we have to believe in talent and often success in the 7th and 8th inning can translate into success in the 9th.”
In 2008, the Diamondbacks rotation will look like this:
Brandon Webb, RHP
Dan Haren, RHP
