The baseball world has been buzzing all day following the news that Johan Santana had been traded to the New York Mets. Most of the prognoses have been negative in their evaluations of the return that the Twins received and I tend to agree, given the lack of any one impact prospect. One would think the Twins would have traded Johan to fill their needs, not to get more pitching prospects that they might use to fill their needs. Johan is a need-filler-getter, Philip Humber is not.

All of the posting on Baseball Prospectus has seen the trade as a bad one for the Twins. Scouting expert Kevin Goldstein rates Carlos Gomez as the best of the bunch, saying:

“Gomez is the top prospect here, but most of his ability is still bottled up in projection, and while the Mets were forced to bring him up last year due to injuries…His ceiling is tremendous based solely on his athleticism. He’s a plus-plus runner and an outstanding center fielder with a cannon arm. At the plate he should be a good hitter with gap power, but he needs to make significant changes in his approach in order to take advantage of his raw skills.”

He and Deolis Guerra rate as four-star prospects (out of five), with Humber and Mulvey rated only as three-star prospects. Goldstein goes on to point out a strange discrepancy, that being that the net return on the Dan Haren trade was greater than that of the Santana deal. I would attribute that to Haren being cost-controlled and Santana having a no-trade clause and also requiring a pricey extension, in addition to the talent surrendered. It was still only a modest return on the best pitcher in baseball.

Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver projects Santana’s 2008 line, is it was in the Metrodome and in Shea Stadium:

GS W-L IP H BB SO HR ERA WARP
Mets 32 16-8 225.0 184 60 239 25 2.94 7.5
Twins 33 15-9 227.0 197 62 230 25 3.32 7.4

The biggest discrepancy is the ERA, which gets a boost from moving to the National League. Both parks are pitchers parks, Shea moreso, so that accounts for the subtle change in the other stats.

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Aaron Gleeman has a good summary of the trade, with a lot of info on the prospects the Twins received.

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Larry Brown says the Mets getting Santana doesn’t guarentee them a World Series until Johan proves he can carry a team in the post-season.

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Baseball Analysts publishes a good look at MLB’s 2007 final payrolls, noting the teams which were most efficient and least efficient.

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College Sports: Gutty Little Bruins breaks down the #1 recruit in the country, running back Darrell Scott.

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Well it’s that time of year sports fans. It’s Super Bowl Week–and don’t think that the biggest football game of the year has no bearing on the baseball world. After everyone’s NFL hangover ends, there is a notorious lull in the sports world that is soon followed by the reincarnation of the whirlwind we call the baseball season.

With just about 2 weeks before pitchers and catchers report to camp, storylines for 2008 have already been shaping since October’s end. All the build-up in the Major League prologue has to have a beginning. The drama begins, my friends, in spring training.

Many believe spring training to be just that: training. However, this is the time in which team chemistry begins to form with teams bringing in new players during the off-season (i.e. Josh Hamilton with the Rangers), established young guns try out new positions to make room for other prospects (Ryan Braun) and a select few minor leaguers challenge for a spot in the limelight. Here are few of what are sure to be many stories to follow in 2008, that will begin in Arizona and Florida:

So-Cal Centerfielders

There has been a lot of activity this off-season as players move from team to team via free agency. Many of these guys cashed in on contract years, so it will be interesting to see how well they respond to the money and their new cities. Southern California will be the intriguing epicenter of this MLB trend. Torii Hunter had himself one of the best seasons of his career in 2007, hitting 28 HR with a career-best 107 RBIs and a .287 AVG. However, Hunter’s defense is what was most sought after in pursuing the centerfielder. The dimensions in centerfield at the Big A are nothing that Hunter can’t handle, but there are still questions surrounding him in Anaheim. One of those will be his speed. Angels skipper Mike Sciosca has his team run more than any other in the AL. Can Hunter, who only had 12 and 18 steals in 2006-07 respectively, adapt his game from being an offensive centerpiece with the Twins to small-ball role player. Also, an issue is Hunter’s place in the lineup. With guys like Chone Figgins, Howie Kendrick, and Eric Aybar all contending for the 1 and 2 spots, is there room for Hunter in the middle of the lineup with Vladamir Guerrero, Casey Kotchman, Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr.? Count on Hunter hitting in the 5th, possibly 6th spot, and forget about him seeing anywhere close to 100 RBIs on a lighter-hitting Angels team.

Across town, the Los Angeles Dodgers are also counting on a new centerfielder in Andruw Jones, who is coming off of a disappointing walk year in which he hit only .222 and a measly .724 OPS. On a team that had a lot of emotional baggage at the end of last season, Jones is going to be put into the awkward position of playing middleman to the age wars in the clubhouse. However, it is also possible that if Jones plays well and Joe Torre manages the way we have seen in the past, the pieces could be in place for a return to prominence for the Boys of Summer.

Fallout from the Mitchell Report

It’s that rain cloud above the heads of players like Paul Lo Duca, Gary Sheffield and Eric Gagne; the thorn in the sides of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Miguel Tejada. The steroid era has been proclaimed by some to be officially over, yet the aftermath and backlash has really not yet begun. How will fans react the first time Washington Nationals catcher Lo Duca steps to the plate after the report named him as major user and middleman of steroids and HGH? Will fans start to nay-say against established sluggers like Sheffield in Detroit? Or perhaps Troy Glaus will meet hostility in St. Louis over the accusations against him (although there was insufficient evidence), seeing as how he already has something to prove in filling the void letf by Scott Rolen.

The age of scrawny utility infielders turning into slugger all-stars may be gone. And to the players, the steroid era is all but done with. But for the fans, time will tell if the 90’s and early part of 2000’s provided a lost generation of baseball that they wont soon forget.

The New Wave

One of the best reasons to watch baseball today is for all of the young talent that is produced in this time when youth is considered to be so precious and vital. The times are changing for the old timers, and younger, faster prospects are eager to produce. The most exemplary evidence of this? The biggest blockbuster deal of the off-season included a 24-year old who already has over 130 career home runs–Miguel Cabrera was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Detroit Tigers. Guys like Cabrera and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder are leading the charge of this new breed I like to call the Toddler Attack.

Every team seems to have that one (in some cases multiple) prized youth who they hope to build around like Felix Hernandez in Seattle and Alex Gordon in Kansas City.

With most of these players being in their early-to-mid-20s, they have had only to compete with older, slower players on the decline. But 2008 will mark the beginning of a period in which organizations will have to pit prospect against prospect in winner-take-all duels. The Angels, for example, will find out if Brandon Wood is worth his salt as he vies for the shortstop position. However, fellow youngster Eric Aybar is believed to have the advantage at the 6-spot going into spring training. If one outplays the other in Tempe this March, the other will most likely become trade bait. Likewise, Joel Guzman, who was the top prospect in the Dodger organization less than 5 years ago, tries to recapture his prospect status this March and outplay minor league phenom Evan Longoria for third base in Tampa.

This season may also see the arrival of an outstanding batch of young outfielders like the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Justin Upton, the Cincinatti Reds’ Jay Bruce, and new Florida Marlin Cameron Maybin thrust into long-term roles, along with glimpses of stud pitchers like the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, the Cleveland Indians’ Adam Miller and the Tampa Bay Rays’ Jeff Niemann. With young players at a premium around the league, top pitching prospects are in the rare position of climbing through minor league ranks at breakneck speeds.

These are just 3 of the stories to watch for in 2008 starting with Spring Training not involving men named Clemens or Barry Bonds. Though the steroid era has not died out completely, this is undoubtedly the post-steroid era; and I say this is the beginning of a second golden age of baseball.

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When the dust settled, neither the Boston Red Sox nor the New York Yankees ended up adding LHP Johan Santana, although much of the off-season has been dedicated speculating which powerhouse would land the best pitcher in baseball. With neither team willing to up their offers, the New York Mets jumped in and traded OF-R Carlos Gomez, RHP’s Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra for Santana. The Mets now have a small window of time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, but there shouldn’t be a problem as he did have to waive his no-trade clause in order to be traded at all. More news on that as it comes.

I don’t have to sit here and say how good Santana is. Best pitcher in baseball pretty much sums it up. How will this upset the balance of power in the National League East? First and foremost, for a Mets team that looked like the best team in the National League in 2007, but completely and utterly blew it down the stretch, this re-establishes them as the top dog in the National League. There 2008 Rotation will look like this:

1. Johan Santana, 29, LHP - 220 IP - 2.60 ERA - 240 K - 60 BB
2. Pedro Martinez, 36, RHP - 100 IP - 3.50 ERA - 100 K - 30 BB
3. John Maine, 27, RHP - 200 IP - 3.80 ERA - 150 K - 70 BB
4. Oliver Perez, 26, LHP - 180 IP - 4.00 ERA - 170 K - 80 BB
5. Orlando Hernandez, 42, RHP - 120 IP - 4.40 ERA - 100 K - 50 BB

That’s a pretty strong rotation and there were rumors that RHP Livan Hernandez had signed a one-year deal with the Mets, but it seems that won’t be necessary anymore. Should El Duque or Martinez go down with an injury, they still have RHP Mike Pelfrey to step in and I’m still convinced he can provide quality innings. This is a lot of depth in the rotation, certainly more than the Braves and a hell of a lot more than the Phillies. Hell, they might consider flipping a pitcher, if things go well for them.

As far as talent given up, none of the players they gave up are really going to hurt their chances in 2008 and with most of the pitchers surrendered far from the bigs, they really made out like bandits here. They didn’t even have to give up top prospect OF-L Fernando Martinez.
According to Baseball America’s most recent rankings of the Mets farm system, they gave up their #2 (Guerra), #3 (Gomez), #4 (Mulvey) and #7 (Humber) prospects. As far as the rankings of these players tools within the system, BA ranks Gomez as the best base runner, best athlete, best outfield defender and best outfield arm. Humber rated as having the best curveball, Mulvey had the best slider and Guerra, the best changeup.

Adding to the scouting reports, John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated Guerra as a B+ prospect, Gomez as a B prospect, Mulvey as a B (almost a B+) and Humber as a B-. His rankings were in agreement with Baseball America. No doubt, these are all good players and all will likely see time in the big leagues.

From the Twins standpoint, they have continued to add to a minor league system that is already very rich with young pitchers. Again, this is a good problem to have and with this depth, they can address their middle infield problem. With Santana gone now, the Twins rotation will look something like this:

1. Francisco Liriano, 24, LHP - 120 IP - 3.40 ERA - 130 K - 40 BB
2. Boof Bonser, 26, RHP - 180 IP - 4.40 ERA - 140 K - 60 BB
3. Kevin Slowey, 24, RHP - 160 IP - 3.90 ERA - 120 K - 40 BB
4. Scott Baker, 26, RHP - 140 IP - 4.40 ERA - 100 K - 40 BB
5. Philip Humber, 25, RHP - 140 IP - 4.60 ERA - 130 K - 50 BB

This isn’t going to be a rotation that will lead the Twins to an AL Central title in 2008 with so many young arms and Liriano coming back from an arm injury, but with more pitching prospects in the pipe-line–RHP Guerra and Mulvey as well as LHP Tyler Robertson, RHP Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship–there is depth there.

I actually like Gomez a lot despite his lack of power. His tools and athleticism are great as well as his advanced age. He has definitely been pushed along in the Mets farm system and has held up well. He should step in as the Mets centerfielder in 2008, removing the need to acquire a player like CF-S Coco Crisp from the Red Sox, although, with their depth, they still can too.

I like this move a lot from the Mets standpoint and they are now a very scary team in the National League. The Twins got a decent return in this trade and how they leverage their starting pitching depth will determine the success of this move for them.

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Rotogod is my name and fantasy sports, especially baseball, is my game. I’ve been doing this for a while now so I was glad Alan asked me to contribute to his site. Alan definitely knows his stuff, but he has nothing on me when it comes to fantasy baseball. Shit, I’ve yet to meet someone I couldn’t take. Still waiting. Arrogance aside–and who doesn’t shit-talk some in fantasy sports??–I’m not here to re-invent the wheel either.

I thought a useful way to kick off my regular post, Rotogod Says, would be covering some of the players who had seasons in 2007 that screamed fluke. I find one of the biggest fallacies you will run into in roto is what I like the call Last Season Syndrome, where fantasy evaluators will become overly enamored with players based on the previous single season, usually a career year (Think Marcus Giles in 2003–*ehem roids*). What I really like is when so-called experts, writers for Yahoo Sports, fantasy baseball publications make these grievous errors. Any shmuck with a laptop can be a fantasy baseball expert. Hell, look at me. Enough hot air, on to the list:

10 - Fausto Carmona, RHP, CLE - Carmona is young, has electric stuff and finished 2007 fourth in Cy Young voting after going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA. What’s more, he actually got better as the season progressed, pitching 2.35 ERA baseball after the month of July. All the signs point to another great year, but I don’t see it. At least, not in 2008 and that’s what we’re dealing with here.  I think this is too much too soon for the 24 year-old, who pitched 230 innings between the regular season and post season. With that much wear on the young arm, I’m looking for close to a run increase in ERA and a high injury risk in 2008.

9 - Chris Young, RHP, SD - As late as August 15th, Tall Chris Young led all of baseball with a 1.93 ERA, but after suffering a back injury, pitched poorly and finished the season with a 3.12 ERA. Regardless of the injury, Young wouldn’t have been able to sustain that kind of success. The Padres will enter 2008 with an outfield of Jim Edmonds, Brian Giles and left field being manned by either Scott Hairston or Kevin Kouzmanoff, which will be tough on the righty who gives up more fly balls than any pitcher in baseball. With a fragile Edmonds responsible for a big portion of their outfield defense, Young may be in trouble.  He’s still a good pitcher, but many will remember his run of dominance and he’ll definitely be over-valued going into the draft.

8 - Brad Penny, RHP, LAD - Penny finished third in Cy Young voting in 2007, with a 16-4 record and a 3.03 ERA in 208 innings pitched. However, he only gave up 9 home runs all season, which is unsustainable at Dodger Stadium and saw his strike out rate go down and his walk rate go up enough from 2006-07 to worry about his performance. Rather than looking for another 3.00-type season, look more for a 4.00-type season on par with 2005-06.

7 - Matt Kemp/James Loney, RF-R/1B-L, LAD - These two hitters have a lot of talent and they both demonstrated that in limited play last season. Kemp hit .342 with 10 home runs in 292 at-bats and Loney hit .331 with 15 home runs in 344 at-bats. Some people will see that and make the very common mistake of extrapolating for 500+ AB’s, accounting for the full seasons. That kind of strategy only works sometimes and neither of these guys are locks to hit for high averages or for a lot of power in 2008, with Kemp a little better on power and Loney a little better on average. These are both great players in real life as young talents, but their fantasy value is slightly skewed as Loney is a low-pop first baseman and Kemp, for all we know, might sit if his character gets called into question and Juan Pierre is on a hot streak. In a weak offensive team, neither will get enough at-bats or RBI opportunities to make a huge impact in 2008. Beyond 2008, they’re both studs.

6 - Khalil Greene, SS-R, SD - Greene aka Spicoli had a great year as far as power from a middle infielder in 2007, hitting 27 home runs and 44 doubles as a shortstop. Still, he happens to play in the worst hitters park in baseball, hits in a craptacular lineup, has a terrible approach at the plate and has never had a season remotely as good as in 2007. He only hit 15 home runs per season from 2004-2006, I’ll take 15 again in 2008 with about a .230 average.

5 - Aaron Rowand, CR-R, SF - In what I’ll call “Even GM’s are wrong sometimes,” Rowand will be leaving the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark, which rated as comparable to Coors field for hitters, so all those career highs he set are out the window in 2008. Not to mention, out of the best offense in the National League, all those RBI and runs are gone too. Look for about a .280 batting average with less than 20 home runs and about 80 RBI and runs scored apiece.  Too bad there’s no category for running into walls.

4 - Brian Bannister, RHP, KC - Bannister finished 2007 third in rookie of the year voting in the American League, finishing with a 12-9 record and a 3.87 ERA. His peripherals were horrific though with 77/44 K/BB ratio in 165 innings pitched. The Royals really have no better options in their rotation, but look for an ERA approaching 5.00 and no wins to speak of.  I saw this great quote by Bannister today where he said, “Whether you like it or not, baseball is a game of randomness…One thing that I have have come to accept is that just because I train hard physically, I practice perfectly, I prepare diligently, and execute a pitch exactly as I wanted, it can still result in a home run.” You are too right there, Bannister.  He definitely used up all his luck in ‘07.

3 - Dmitri Young, 1B-S, WAS - In yet another example of “even GM’s get fooled sometime,” Dmitri looked like the perfect candidate to be traded at last years trade deadline by a Washington Nationals team that had nothing going for them and had something of some value in Young, who was having a career year. However, Jim Bowden said, “No, we like Dmitri and feel he has turned a corner, at age 33, and has finally figured this whole ‘hitting’ thing out.” Young got a two-year contract extension instead on account of his .320 batting average. Now the Nats have Nick Johnson blocked and a slow, unathletic, injury-proned “hitter” for two more seasons. With no chance of maintaining those numbers, poor power and poor counting stats, don’t make the same mistake.

2 - Albert Pujols, 1B-R, STL - Pujols had what some will consider a down year hitting “only” .327/.429/.568 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI in 2007. Personally, if I had the top pick, I’d still take him first overall, plain and simple, but will he be edged by guys like A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes in the rankings in 2008? Pujols was clearly affected hitting at home at Busch Stadium II where he hit only .294/.399/.488 with 12 home runs compared with .358/.455/.642 with 20 home runs on the road. Unless the new stadium is PETCO version 2.0, and even if it is, I can’t see Pujols being affected to that extent this season.  I look for those numbers to even themselves out more and his runs scored and RBI should increase as well with Ankiel, Glaus and maybe Colby Rasmus hitting around him.  Still the best.

1 - Kyle Kendrick, RHP, PHIL - Kendrick had what looked like a promising 2007 season where he finished fifth in the National League in rookie of the year voting with a 10-4 record and a 3.87 ERA (which is strangely identical to Bannisters). But in 121 innings pitched, Kendrick definitely didn’t fool anyone, with marginal stuff and marginal control, striking out only 49 batters and walking 25. With a K/9 of only 3.6, Kendrick is going to get lit up like a M-80 in Citizens Bank Ballpark. I’ll bet he’ll be out of the rotation by July and back in AAA wondering why he can’t get hitters to pop-up anymore.  If it wasn’t for his age, 23, I’d guess we’ll never hear from him again.

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Gentleman and Ladies, welcome to Baseball Mastermind. For those that read my work over at Baseball Authority, I appreciate it very much. I’m very excited to be here with our own domain and I will continue to commit to providing premium, up-to-date content.

In getting this site up, I’d especially like to thank Andy Botros, who writes the always hilarious Gutty Little Bruins. Thanks for the countless hours, slaving away, helping to get this bad-boy up and running. Pancakes, Andy. Also, I’d like to thank Larry Brown, of Larry Brown Sports for all the help. Without your guys’ help, I’d be lost.

I have a few announcements, regarding changes to the site. I’ve enlisted the help of two buddies who will be providing in areas I lack. Jason Chacon, a buddy of mine and a journalism major at the fine institution of Arizona State University will be writing a weekly column on Thursdays and once college baseball season starts, will cover that area of the game. Also, my buddy, Rotogod, will begin writing our fantasy baseball column. These guys definitely know their stuff and I’m excited to have them aboard.

Play ball.

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Following a flurry of extensions being signed around major league baseball, the Minnesota Twins locked up two of their homegrown players, agreeing to terms with 1B-L Justin Morneau on a six-year $80 million extension–the largest deal in club history–and RF-R Michael Cuddyer to a three-year $24 million extension with a $10.5 million team option for 2011.

Upon hearing that the two were given these contracts, my first thought was “Damn, that’s a lot of money for Justin Morneau.” This deal lacks the creativity of the Tulowitzki, Shields and Cano extensions, where the clubs were able to leverage their control and give themselves fewer guaranteed years and more option years. Power hitters are usually an expensive commodity on the free agent market, but with a fairly low career on-base percentage (.340), Morneau isn’t going to be a perennial MVP candidate (though he managed to steal one).

On the plus side, I like that Minnesota Twins General Manager Bill Smith has extended Morneau, locking him up for three of his free agent seasons and through his age 32 season. With his plus power, Morneau will be a good bet to remain productive during that span. Not to mention, the Twins also won’t be taking on any of Morneau’s decline seasons, if they had waited to try to extend him before he leaves as a free agent. The Twins have been excellent in recent years at developing young pitchers through their minor league system, but have been poor when it comes to developing hitters. This move assures, they will keep one of their hitters around, at least. All in all, this is a good move, even if its not as inspired as the other extensions mentioned above.

My second thought, upon hearing of these deals, was “Wait? Cuddyer? Seriously?” In todays market, $8 million isn’t a lot of money to give a player, but Cuddyer is hardly the type of player an organization really needs to commit to long-term. Had the Twins simply continued to agree to one-year deals with Cuddyer, they probably wouldn’t have hurt their chances too badly in retaining the right fielder once he became a free agent.

Since becoming the Twins everyday right fielder in 2006, Cuddyer has played an important role offensively for the Twins, splitting up lefties C-L Joe Mauer and Morneau, but his career splits reflect his limitations as he only has hit .263/.333/.448 against right-handed pitching, versus .286/.371/.453 against left-handed pitching. Also, Cuddyer has a great throwing arm in the outfield, usually among the league leaders in assists, but his range is poor, bringing down his overall value. Not as big a fan of this move.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess whether LHP Johan Santana will be traded by opening day, but one has to wonder, if the Twins were willing to invest $104 million into Morneau and Cuddyer, how far off would they be if they had instead tried to offer Santana the six-year $150 million extension, he is reportedly seeking. He is the best pitcher in baseball, he’ll be worth the money.

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MLB.com reports that the Seattle Mariners and the Baltimore Orioles are close to completing a deal that will send LHP Erik Bedard to Seattle in exchange for OF-R Adam Jones. The Mariners have continuously tried to acquire the ace lefty this off-season and as it turns out, the one player they seemed unwilling to give up was the one player who could make this deal happen.

I have to call this one a huge win for the Mariners, if it goes down as reported. With the two major deals being completed by the rebuilding Oakland A’s this off-season and the potential deals being discussed for Minnesota Twins LHP Johan Santana, I feel the Orioles have sold themselves short. What was stopping the Orioles from giving giving New York Mets General Manager Omar Minaya a call and attempting to get a lesser package where they could get OF-R Carlos Gomez and a pitching prospect or two.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Jones alright. As a 21 year-old, he hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 home runs in AAA. He will step in as the Orioles starting left fielder in 2008, combing with RF-L Nick Markakis to make for a nice outfield core moving forward. However, he’s going to be a leftfielder as a major leaguer and his power is going to have to continue to develop in order for him to become an impact player.

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Free agent RHP Bartolo Colon has yet to sign with a team. Although Chicago White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams told fans at White Sox fanfest that they made the righty a one-year, incentive-laden offer, which he declined. I’m not sure what Colon is looking for and if he’s expecting a multi-year deal, but as an overweight, out of shape, injured, old pitcher, he shouldn’t expect much.

Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Jacques saw Colon pitch in the Dominican League Finals game and was not impressed:

“This wasn’t the power pitcher we’re used to seeing. Colon mainly threw two-seam fastballs in the 88-91 MPH range on the ESPN Deportes gun, touching 94 once in the fourth inning. Colon held Licey scoreless through four innings, retiring 11 in a row and 12 of his first 13 batters faced. The only hit he allowed to that point was a flare single. Despite the results, he hardly looked dominating. Both his strikeouts were called, and he wasn’t missing bats much. And in the fifth inning, Colon looked gassed–his fastball, after a velocity spike in the fourth, dropped into the mid-80s–and he was pulled after allowing two singles, a walk and a hit by pitch without retiring a batter.”

I’m not buying.

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I love following minor leaguers, especially the studs, because of all the promise as well as all the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in the evaluation process. I’d like to think of myself as a good talent evaluator, but I’ve been wrong on players more than a few times (SS-R Troy Tulowitzki, 3B-R Andy Marte, for different reasons in 2007). It’s part of the prospecting game.With prospects, the numbers play a part in the evalutation process, but they don’t tell the whole story. Analysts know a lot about the game and trends within the game, but trends are not truths and when it comes to prospects, it is largely an individual-to-individual evaluation. Why did scouts like 1B-L James Loney so much despite the fact that he never performed, at any level, between advanced A ball and AAA (2002-2006)? Because he has a great swing, because he has a projectable frame and because they saw something in James Loney that said ballplayer. Hell, I still don’t know how many home runs he’ll hit in 2008 or in his peak because there’s nothing in the numbers to indicate such. A good guess might be between 10-30. I’ll take 15 in 2008 and 25 peak, but that’s just me.

An even better example is someone like SS-R Hanley Ramirez, who in two short seasons in the majors, went from confounding prospect to one of the most valuable commdities in baseball. No one saw that coming, including Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein who is one of the greatest talent evaluators in the game. I’ll bet there’s a scout somewhere saying “Told ya’ so.”

The numbers can also be misleading in the opposite direction. Until a player has made it through each level of the minors and has some body of work in the major leagues, players who look promising early on (RHP Yusmeiro Petit, Jeremy Sowers), flame out because the stuff doesn’t match the performance.

On that note, there’s a great piece regarding Colorado Rockies LHP Franklin Morales by Baseball Prospectus scout Kevin Goldstein where he talks about player evaluation that I really liked. He touches on a variety of points that are often contested, such as talent vs. performance and the issue of makeup. Analysts hate words like “makeup” and “chemistry” because they cannot be quantified, but in a game that isn’t defined by entirely its trends, but also by its individuals, these things certainly can be qualified.

Here, Goldstein talks about the disparity between talent and performance in response to a letter from a fan who questions Morales’ receiving a 5-Star grade:

“I grade Morales as not only a five-star prospect, but as an upper-echelon one at that…You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of left-handers at ANY LEVEL who can match Morales on a pure stuff level, and that really does count for something…You say I have no reliable data points, I argue that scouting reports are reliable data points, and in my experience, far more reliable for evaluating prospects than raw minor league statistics. Not that pure performance isn’t important, but it’s not as important to me as scouting reports.”

And here, Goldstein emphasizes the importance of makeup:

“You emphasize “rave professionalism reviews” as if it is a bad thing–-I assume this is because it is not a specific data point. I can tell you, one thing I’ve learned from my many years of doing this, which have given me the wonderful opportunity to deal with people inside the game on a daily basis, is that MAKEUP COUNTS. It really does. Supreme talent can overcome bad makeup, but average, even good talent rarely can. You can look at old prospect lists and focus on the misses, and when you do that, for every player who just wasn’t as good as we thought, there was a player who didn’t become what he could of, or even should of, because he didn’t put in the work necessary to become a big leaguer. Baseball is a remarkably difficult game, and those who approach the game with the proper effort and yes, professionalism have a significant leg up on those who don’t, and can often pass those who are far more talented. You want to know why I was so wrong about Dustin Pedroia? It’s not because I under-evaluated his tools, I can read my report on those and they’re still very accurate. It’s because I underrated just how valuable his effort is to his overall productivity.”

This is good stuff. Why is it that a player like OF-R Elijah Dukes has failed to make it? Obviously, the talent is there, but something mentally isn’t or hasn’t been yet. Still, just like plate discipline can be learned (SS-B Jose Reyes), power can sometimes be learned (James Loney???), so too can a strong work ethic and so-called makeup. Like anything in baseball, its not easy to learn and its even harder to project.

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Technorati Tags: Andy Marte, baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Dustin Pedroia, Elijah Dukes, Franklin Morales, Hanley Ramirez, James Loney, Jose Reyes, parity, prospects, scouting, tools, Troy Tulowitzki

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