Baseball Mastermind

Providing Daily Player, Performance, and Transaction Analysis

Archive for February, 2008

National League Preview: How to Fix the Pittburgh Pirates

Posted by Alan Hull on 29th February 2008

mccutchen.jpgFirst, a Pirates poem from AOL Fanhouse’s MLB Poetry:

15 years since I’ve seen a good team.
15 beers to forget about Bream.
I want the cheers, but this isn’t a dream.

They say “We Will” and they fail to come through.
Its never a thrill when their words say “adieu.”
If only still I could discard this crew.

They boast a squad of Sanchez and Bay.
Oh my God, all my hopes fly away.
Let’s sign Tom Dodd, I’m sure he can still play.

But yet through spring, I’ll block out “way back when.”
I’ll see them swing, I’ll believe in our ‘pen.
That’s the thing, I have faith once again.

It must be hard to maintain faith as a Pirates fan through all the years of ownership apathy and Dave Littlefield media spin. I truly respect the sports fans who not only celebrate their team through the ups, but through the downs as well.

The Pirates are the biggest example of a franchise in the down–they are a bad team, but they would compare favorably with the Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles on a major league-ready talent level, but unlike those two, the rebuilding process has yet to begin as far as player acquisitions go. A franchise does not lose for 15 straight seasons without something wrong within the organization and the Pirates had to start with the brain of the organization, so they hired Frank Coolney to serve as team President and his first major move was firing General Manager Dave Littlefield and hiring Neal Huntington.

I’ve expressed my optimism about the hiring of Neal Huntington as the General Manager of the team. I think he is a very bright and able person and has begun the project from the ground up, beginning with the front office and the infrastructure within the organization. That’s a good sign. What makes organizations like the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians so successful is that every single employee within the organization is on the same page. The Pirates are moving in that direction.

In covering the Pirates rebuilding efforts I will first provide some changes and new ideas Huntington and the new regime have shared in their recent interviews, then I will review the assets the Pirates currently have within the organization and some potential trade partners for these assets. Read the rest of this entry »

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in MLB, Pittsburgh Pirates, baseball, baseball economy, scouting and player development, trades | 1 Comment »

American League Preview: Class of the AL Central - Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers

Posted by Alan Hull on 27th February 2008

1186852562.jpg

It was only a few seasons ago, as recently as 2004, when the American League Central was the weakest division in baseball, with the Minnesota Twins maintaining a loose hold on the division, winning 92 games and winning the division by 9 games. That trend has changed as the AL Central is now regarded as one of the strongest in baseball. Although the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have expended their resources and had their time at the top, it is now the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers who are the class of the division.

While the Tigers missed the playoffs last season, they competed with the Indians for most of the season and certainly did their part during the off-season to put themselves back into position to make a run for the division title. Today, I will preview these two teams going over what to expect. Read the rest of this entry »

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in American League, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Free Agent, Japanese baseball, MLB, NFL, Spring Training, UCLA, baseball, college football, injuries, predictions, prospects, scouting and player development, trades | No Comments »

Diggin’ the College Scene: Covering the DeMarini College Invitational

Posted by Jason Chacon on 27th February 2008

ncaa_wallace_275.jpgBeing a current sports journalism student at the fine institution of Arizona State University, I am thereby according to Sun Devil law an avid ASU sports fan. Being at such status, it was tacit that I would be attending last weekends DeMarini Invitational, hosted by none other than the Sun Devils themselves. If there is one thing I could say about the tournament, it would be this: Tempe certainly knows how to start off a season.

With three teams that were ranked in the pre-season top 12 in at least one of the 6 polls (ASU, Vanderbilt, and two-time defending Champs Oregon State), the Valley of the Sun was flowing with All-Americans and high-quality baseball. The action started on Friday when Vanderbilt beat Oregon State 11-1 to start things off with a Commodore team loaded with firepower. In the later game, ASU took out its first-game jitters on defenseless (I say this because they commited 5 errors) Miami (Ohio) Redhawks, trouncing them 7-0.

The next day saw an epiphany in the game as ASU made a strong statement against Vanderbilt, and that statement was “Look Out Omaha” as the final score for the game was 18-6 Arizona. Depending on which poll you read, the rankings vary.  Vanderbilt had been as high as #3 in the country, with ASU ranked ninth in that same poll. None the less, the Sun Devils, led by Brett Wallace’s 2 HR and 7 RBIs,  demonstrated why ASU is ranked #1 in four major polls (rival Arizona took the top spot in one poll this week while UCLA (editor’s note: Go Bruins!) is ranked #1 in another. Do you see a Pac-10 trend here?) and why they feel they are the team to beat in ‘08.

The next day poor Miami was given their third loss of the tournament at the hands of Vanderbilt, while ASU exacted revenge in a forceful manner on Oregon State, who beat the Devils in a College World Series game last season. The final score of that one was 11-0. Needless to say this was a game that was important for ASU to establish themselves in the tough-as-nails Pac-10.

In my previous rankings of teams and players in the NCAA, I mentioned that Miami (Florida) was the team to beat. However, after seeing the astonishing display of power to go along with polished pitching, ASU is largely considered the best team in college baseball at this point. And who can disagree? It may be early, but beating the two-time defending Champions and a team with the consensus #1 draft prospect (3B Pedro Alvarez of Vandy) at this point is already tremendously impressive. However, the season is still VERY early, and a lot can happen. Arizona looked strong as well taking two of three at Georgia, and Miami still has a college version of the Murderer’s Row, anchored by Yonder Alonzo.

Call this article biased if you will. Call it favoritism, but I say ASU is the team to beat. Time will tell in June if ASU is finally for real and ready to win in Omaha, but until then, prepare for one hell of a college baseball season.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in baseball | No Comments »

Finally! Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects, Spring Training Pranks Galore, Bonds to the Rays? Maybe..

Posted by Alan Hull on 27th February 2008

bonds.jpgI’ve been patiently waiting all off-season.  Baseball America has finally released their Top-100 prospects list.  As far as prospects lists go, no other source publicly available carries as much weight within the baseball industry, although Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein and John Sickels are other personal favorites of mine.

Let’s do a quick run-down, comparing their top-10 and mine.

Baseball America

  1. Jay Bruce
  2. Evan Longoria
  3. Joba Chamberlain
  4. Clay Buchholz
  5. Colby Rasmus
  6. Cameron Maybin
  7. Clayton Kershaw
  8. Franklin Morales
  9. Homer Bailey
  10. David Price

Here’s my Top-10

  1. Jay Bruce
  2. Evan Longoria
  3. Joba Chamberlain
  4. Clay Buchholz
  5. Clayton Kershaw
  6. Cameron Maybin
  7. Colby Rasmus
  8. Homer Bailey
  9. David Price
  10. Travis Snider

I’m proud to say our top-10’s are very similar, with the top four identical.  After that, our 5-7 slots are switched around.  The only major difference is they have Franklin Morales at #8, I have him #11 and I have Travis Snider #10, they have him #11.  BA also takes Joba Chamberlain over Clay Buchholz in what will be the debate of the year.  Not too shabby.

In retrospect, there is one player I definitely over-valued and that was Ian Kennedy.  Also every major list has him listed in the 40’s, as his stuff does not project past a #3-4 starter type.  I overrated him a bit having seen him pitch more in the majors and having followed him since his high school days at Westminster La Quinta and on through U$C.  Great player, great poise, not a top-25 prospect.

———————————–

Apparently Adam Dunn can do things other than the “Three True Outcomes”–hit home runs, walk and strikeout–he can also punk top prospects.  (Larry Brown Sports)

Speaking of Pranks, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim trick ace John Lackey into taking an algebra test as a part of Spring Training.  (Obscure Sports Quarterly)

———————————–

Tamp Bay Rays contemplate signing Barry Bonds.  (DRays Bay)

If they pull the trigger on this move, they are going to have a pretty solid team. Consider:

  1. Carl Crawford, LF
  2. Rocco Baldellia, RF (IF Healthy)
  3. B.J. Upton, CF
  4. Barry Bonds, DH
  5. Carlos Pena, 1B
  6. Evan Longoria, 3B
  7. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
  8. Dioner Navarro, C
  9. Jason Bartlett, SS

The last two spots can be flopped and likewise, if Rocco were injurred, Upton could step and bat second.  The team might be somewhat exposed to left-handed pitching with Crawford, Pena and Bonds but Johnny Gomes would be a good substitute for Bonds, who will need rest.  If they can get Bonds for around $10-$13 million, maybe an incentive-laden deal for less, there is no reason not to and it would help a lot in building that fan base up, which should be the Rays top priority.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , Baseball America, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Keith Law, Larry Brown Sports, , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Rotogod Says: Sleepers, Deep Sleepers - Fantasy Baseball 2008

Posted by Rotogod on 27th February 2008

9lqtluz9.jpgRotogod here. The fantasy baseball season is just around the corner and I’m sure you’re all thinking about your respective drafts, auctions or whatnot. I’ve covered flukes, injuries and rookies and for next week, I’m working on 2008 Rookies and Potential Impact II, as that piece as by far the most well received of any piece I’ve done to date.

Today, I’m going to talk a bit bout 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers and deep sleepers. A good fantasy baseball manager enters a draft with list of players they have deemed to be undervalued or primed for a breakout and will target said players. The key is to not overvalue your sleepers, but there’s a fine line between where you value your sleepers and where the rest of your league does. If some over-excited fanboy takes Rickie Weeks in the third round of your draft, don’t sweat it, the value he had is diminished because he has to produce like a third-rounder just to break even. Read the rest of this entry »

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , Baseball America, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Fantasy Sports, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, MLB, Mitchell Report, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, baseball, contract extension, fantasy baseball, prospects, steroids | 15 Comments »

2008 National League Preview: Darkhorse Teams - Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers

Posted by Alan Hull on 25th February 2008

1383-07-10-15-reds.jpgThe National League, unlike the America league, lacks the superpower teams that are almost locks to make the playoffs beyond the New York Mets. After that, there are conceivably nine or ten teams vying for the final three spots. I doubt the San Diego Padres will be able to compete and it will take a lot going wrong for the Houston Astros to win the NL Central, leaving eight real, legitimate contenders.

Of those eight, the NL West will see major competition between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers; the NL Central will likely see competition between the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds; and finally, from the NL East, barring something unforeseen happening to the Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves will compete with all the best losers for the Wild Card.

I was originally going to write this darkhorse article on the Reds and the Braves, who I saw as fringe competitors, where the Braves finished third and the Reds finished fifth in their respective divisions, but after consulting the futures odds at Vegas Insider, I thought I needed to sub in the Dodgers for the Braves as they are currently listed as 22/1 favorites to win the World Series and the Reds are listed as 55/1 favorites. The Braves are listed as 16/1, not bad, but I have the Dodgers as the #3 team in the NL, so this represents quite a gap between the talent I am confident they have and the betting public.

So without further ado, I will kick-off my preseason preview series with the two biggest “darkhorse” teams in the NL, the Reds and the Dodgers: Read the rest of this entry »

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , Baseball Prospectus, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Cincinnati Reds, Japanese baseball, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, National League, baseball, injuries, predictions, projections, prospects, scouting and player development, trades | 6 Comments »

LINKS, Y’All: Hal Steinbrenner Exclusive Interview, Phillies Screw Everyone, Giants Plan to Run, David Price Interview

Posted by Alan Hull on 25th February 2008

newspaper_2_.jpg

So despite a lot of hits, almost no one felt brave enough to post standings of their own, or even MVP’s or World Series winners for that matter. Step up, people. Again, tonight, I’ll be posting my season preview doubleplay for the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers. Wednesday, Rotogod will cover sleepers, in his Sleepers, Deep Sleepers post. Now, some links:

GQ Magazine has an in-depth interview with New York Yankees General Partner Hal Steinbrenner, the less-vocal of the two brothers. It’s a pretty interesting read that mostly focuses on Hal’s relationship with his father and brother within the organization. It seems George is still calling the shot, with the two sons contributing their opinions. Here are some excerpts:

GQ: Was it always assumed during your childhood that you or Hank would one day take over the Yankees from your dad?
Steinbrenner: “My dad would say, “Someday this is going to be yours.” “We’re counting on you, we’re counting on Hank.” “I’m not going to want to do this forever.” I don’t know
[laughs] if that was true. George was very involved, and he loved it.”

GQ: Your dad had a council of advisers, all of whom were coequal, but he unilaterally set the team’s course. Do you think the team is going to be more hierarchical going forward?
“I’m going to sound like a military-school guy, but I’m a big believer in chain of command. Under George, I think a lot of people felt like George was going to make the decision, no matter what, and they just didn’t make many decisions. The direction that we’re moving toward is more along the lines of how I think an efficient corporation should run…We understand this is New York. We understand winning is expected. We want to win. Even if that wasn’t the case, we would want to win; that’s just the way we are. But I think we’re both more introverted and more analytical. We tend to want to take time to come up with a solution to a problem, as opposed to making a seat-of-the-pants–type decision. And I think that showed in some of these off-season signings. Some people didn’t understand why we took so long to decide this or to decide that, but we want to get it right.”

GQ: Who’s at the top of the chain of command?
“What’s been determined is that this is a family business, and if we’re both gonna be involved, it has to be an equal thing, and we both need to be involved with all major decisions, whether it’s the stadium, big expenditures, or [the unconsummated trade for Johan] Santana, for instance.”

—————————————————-

My boy Andrew from True Blue LA comes out with a great piece on how the Phillies failing to beat Ryan Howard in arbitration screwed everything up for everyone. Leave it to the 10,000 loss team to poo-poo everyone else who isn’t as miserable.

—————————————————-

The Giants are bad. Everyone knows this. Well, maybe not everyone because they have an idea on how they might win in 2008: run, run, run. Grant of McCovey Chronicles (always a good read), breaks down why a comparison to the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals does not hold up. As a fellow baseball fan and a man, I have to feel for the Giants, but as a Dodgers fan, this is good stuff. He also found the newspaper pic at the top of this article somewhere, which is awesome and explains so much about guys like, say, Gary Matthews Jr. in his walk year.

—————————————————-

Rays Anatomy on MVN has an interview with 2007 first overall pick, David Price. Not much information because apparently, Price is a cliché machine:

MVN: You had the pressure of being the possible top draft pick for all of last season. Now, you are one of the top prospects in an organization whose farm system is laced with prime talent. What did you learn about dealing with that hype that can help you as a professional?

David Price: You have got to just take it day by day, game by game. It a long season and one start can make all the difference.

MVN: What do you believe is your greatest asset as a pitcher? How do you plan to harness that during your career?

David Price: My desire and work ethic. Desire can get you to the big leagues and work ethic will keep you there.

Just gonna give it 100% and take it day-by-day right? Right.

—————————————————-

Yesterday, I predicted that Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon would win the AL Manager of the Year Award. It seems he has already taken steps in that direction, saying things would be different in 2008 and players would be held accountable:

“We’re at the point now where we think we’ve moved this along a bit, so you’re not going to give somebody as much rope. You still want to develop, and you still want to see people. But they may not get the same opportunities to fail as much as we’ve given people to fail in the past.” (Rays Index)

—————————————————-

And in other news, Barry Bonds may make like Mr. Baseball and head to Japan. (Deadspin)

First, if Barry did that, health permitting, he would probably make a good run at Sadaharu Oh’s single season home run record of 55, which has been challenged several times and even has some controversy surrounding it. Sounds like a plan for Barry to set the record straight.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Barry Bonds, MLB, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, baseball, prospects | No Comments »

MLB Preview: 2008 Predictions

Posted by Alan Hull on 24th February 2008

Now that both league’s power rankings are up (AL/NL), I will begin my preview series, covering (or attempting to cover) all 30 teams before the season starts. Tuesday, I will begin with a piece on NL sleepers featuring in the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds, who both rate very low according to futures bet activity.

Now, I will post my 2008 predictions. Predicting a World Series winner, MVP candidates, etc. is a fairly meaningless exercise because the season is so long and unpredictable, but hey, it’s fun to do:

National League

NL West: 1) Arizona Diamondbacks - 92 wins; 2) Los Angeles Dodgers - 90 wins*; 3) Colorado Rockies - 85 wins; 4) San Diego Padres; 5) San Francisco Giants

NL Central: 1) Chicago Cubs - 86 wins; 2) Milwaukee Brewers - 85 wins; 3) Cincinnati Reds; 4) Houston Astros; 5) St. Louis Cardinals; 6) Pittsburgh Pirates

NL East: 1) New York Mets - 94 wins; 2) Atlanta Braves - 84 wins; 3) Philadelphia Phillies - 82 wins; 4) Florida Marlins; 5) Washingon Nationals

*NL Wild Card

————————-

America League

AL West: 1) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 91 wins; 2) Seattle Mariners - 84 wins; 3) Texas Rangers; 4) Oakland Athletics

AL Central: 1) Cleveland Indians - 92 wins; 2) Detroit Tigers - 90 wins; 3) Chicago White Sox; 4) Minnesota Twins, 5) Kansas City Royals

AL East: 1) Boston Red Sox - 95 wins; 2) New York Yankees - 92 wins*; 3) Toronto Blue Jays; 4) Tampa Bay Rays - 81 wins; 5) Baltimore Orioles

*AL Wild Card

————————-

Individual Awards

NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, LAD

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, TBR

NL Rookie of the Year: Jay Bruce, CIN

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, TBR

NL Cy Young Award: Johan Santana, NYM

AL Cy Young Award: Jeremy Bonderman, DET (had to get a controversial pick in here)

NL MVP: David Wright, NYM

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYA

————————-

World Series: New York Mets over Boston Red Sox.

[Update: Here’s my NL Preview on why the New York Mets are going to win it all.]

Bring it on people, let’s see some predictions, projections. Who’s going to win it all in 2008?

ny-mets-3d-logo.jpg

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in American League, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, National League, National League American League, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, baseball, predictions, projections, prospects | 3 Comments »<