Baseball Mastermind

Providing Daily Player, Performance, and Transaction Analysis

Archive for April, 2008

You Be the Mastermind: Are the Oakland A’s Legit?

Posted by Alan Hull on 30th April 2008

vlad.jpgI don’t have time to post something tonight as I have a midterm and a paper due tomorrow, so here is a question for today. Feel free to comment on it and discuss. Regular posting will resume tomorrow.

Question

With the addition of Frank Thomas and a relatively strong pitching staff and defense, will the Oakland Athletics give the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim a legitimate run for their money?

What are your predictions for wins for each team?

I say that Oakland will play good baseball, but fall short, winning 83 games but they will get solid contributions from Carlos Gonzalez and Gio Gonzalez down the stretch. The Angels will win 88 games, but they will out-perform their Pythogorean record and it will have been much closer than it looks.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, MLB, Oakland Athletics, baseball | 7 Comments »

Seattle Extends Catcher Jenji Johjima. WHY? What About Jeff Clement?

Posted by Alan Hull on 29th April 2008

johjima.jpgThe Seattle Mariners have announced their decision to give catcher Kenji Johjima a three-year $24 million contract extension. This news should come as some shock as the Mariners’ top prospect, Jeff Clement, is a catcher and at the moment, is hitting .397/.535/.692 with five home runs for AAA Tacoma.

Johjima, 32, has served as the Mariners catcher the past two seasons after ten seasons in Japan, and has done well, hitting .281/.322/.426 with 18 and 14 home runs, respectively. Johjima has also been very strong defensively, throwing out 39% of base stealers for the Mariners.

There are a few problems with this extension: with Clement, 24, clearly ready to go offensively and Johjima looking weak offensively so far this season, hitting a meager .184/.253/.224 with no home runs in his first 73 AB, I have to wonder why the Mariners made it such a priority to re-sign Johjima that they did it before the season was over. Johjima has decent power for a catcher, but with his lack of plate discipline and his age, he will probably decline quickly offensively. Why not wait to see how he does this season before negotiating an extension? If Johjima were to have a down-year this season, it would definitely be as a result of his age and all the years spent behind the plate and as it is, Japanese players are believed to wear down at an earlier age, so with Johjima as the first Japanese catcher, we are in unchartered, albeit worrisome territory.

Even if Clement is determined to be unfit to make it as a catcher long-term based on his defense, he’s young enough where his offense should make it worthwhile for the coming seasons. I have to think the Mariners plan to mix Clement in as a part-time catcher and designated hitter this season, replacing the very un-DH-like Jose Vidro. After this season, Clement would increasingly take on more time at catcher iwith Johjima serving as a useful back-up and second option, which works as long as Johjima remains as strong as he has defensively, but really don’t see why they felt the need to extend him in-season.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in MLB, Minor League Baseball and Scouting, Seattle Mariners, baseball, contract extension, prospects | No Comments »

The San Francisco Giants Demote Barry Zito to the Bullpen, Should Demote Themselves Instead

Posted by Alan Hull on 28th April 2008

zito.jpgAfter starting the season with a 0-6 record and a 7.53 ERA, the San Francisco Giants have decided to move Barry Zito to the bullpen. Zito was unhappy with the decision, but also maintained his faith in management.

For those who are unhappy with Barry Zito’s performance this season and last, it’s only understandable given Zito’s record seven-year $126 million contract. However, the expectations on Zito based on his contract are unrealistic and when the move was made, the Giants were really trying to will something because they were in no real position to contend.

Let’s get some things straight: 1) Zito was never a hard-thrower and while the decline in his velocity is concerning, it was an inevitability, although the Giants were hoping the decline would come later rather than now. 2) Zito has never had good command of his fast ball. Even when Zito was at his best with Oakland, he was walking between 78 and 99 batters per season from 2001-06. That’s a bad combination and I’m not even factoring in Zito pitching for an A’s team with consistently strong defense behind him in his later years. At this point, hitters are just sitting on that fastball and things are getting ugly for the left-hander.

When the contract was signed, I never expected him to be a good pitcher, but a league-average innings eater? Yeah, I kind of expected that at least. So far, Zito has been neither. Will a move to the bullpen help him improve his command? Maybe a bit - to a passable level, hopefully. Will a move to the bullpen improve his velocity? I’m not sure it will.

Was that a really bad contract when it was signed? Yes, and I think everyone knew that, so why are people so surprised about his performance?

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Free Agent, MLB, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco Giants, baseball | 3 Comments »

The Word On The Street by Phil Brody — 4/28/07

Posted by admin on 28th April 2008

cahill.jpgI See Your Scherzer and Raise You A Meloan

Last week, I wrote about the possibility of Max Scherzer getting an opportunity this season with the Arizona Diamondbacks and he was indeed called up yesterday. While I am excited to see him pitch in the majors (albeit as a reliever at first it seems), I have already turned my attention to the next big impending call up, Jon Meloan of the Los Angels Dodgers. Meloan’s career K-Rate is as exciting as Scherzer’s (91 K’s in 66.2 IP) and the two seem to be sharing the same career path with their respective clubs. Meloan also projects as a reliever, but the Dodgers decided to stretch him out as a starter during the Spring in order to work on his command. All was going well (25 K’s in 25.2 IP) until he walked five in his last start, which lasted only four innings. I am anxious to see how he rebounds. If he does well in his next few starts, I believe the Dodgers are a team that could use an influx of youth and energy on the mound.

Minor Accomplishments

Trevor Cahill was flat-out dominant against the Ranch-Cucamonga Quakes on Sunday. This came after a less-than-stellar outing against San Jose Giants earlier in the week where he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, while striking out 6. On Sunday, however, he struck out 12 in 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and an unearned run, while walking none in a no-decision. The run came on a throwing error in the first inning by Quake’s catcher Juan Nunez, when he attempted to throw out 2B Wilberto Ortiz at second. The error did not seem to faze Cahill, who struck out 7 of the next 9. Lots of details, I know, but what I am trying to say I can boil down to five words: Get. Him. While. You. Can.

Cardinal Sin

Said it before and will say it again, given the opportunity Brian Barton would help many fantasy baseball teams this season. To me, it’s almost a sin that he’s relegated to part-time duty in what has become a crowded outfield in St. Louis. Barton has been performing well off the bench, which is invaluable to a team, so it looks like it’ll take an injury or a trade to prove my point.

Rockie Mountain High

I feel the same way about Ryan Spilborghs. I’m high on him. He always seems to get the clutch hit off the bench and I’d love to see what he could do with everyday at bats.

New Sox

Gut feeling here, but the White Sox seem at wits end with Juan Uribe, which might be a golden opportunity for Alexei Ramirez. While Ramirez has not done much with the opportunities he’s been given so far, the fact that the Sox have not sent him down tells me they believe in him. If the Sox act on their disdain for Uribe, Ramirez could be a nice band-aid for fantasy teams with MI needs.

This Season, Not Next

Watched John Lannan on Sunday and to me he looks a lot like this year’s version of Kyle Kendrick, which is not a bad thing if you need a SP this season.

Did You Know?

What do Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, John Danks and Armando Galarraga have in common? All are former Texas Rangers, the same Texas Rangers with a current rotation of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings and Sidney Ponson.

One Door Closes, Another One Opens

Francisco Liriano’s demotion gives Kevin Slowey a clear path into the rotation when he completes his rehab assignment. He has looked good so far, tossing five hitless innings on Saturday, while striking out five and only walking one. I am trying to add him or acquire him in any league I can.

Always Fun To Root For The David

If anyone needs proof that the Tampa Bays Rays can and will contend in the very near future, look no further than the way they played the Red Sox this past weekend. I know it’s just one series, but when Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz pitch like they did and the Rays do not even flinch, it shows me something. Now it looks like Tampa Bay gets Scott Kazmir back this week. Wow.

The 2008 Rays remind me a lot of the 1994 Cleveland Indians, albeit Tampa Bay has much better pitching than Cleveland ever did during their run in the 90’s. Another wow. If it sounds like I am a Rays fan, let it be know I am not. I just enjoy watching a young team that plays with high-energy and no franchise (besides maybe the Diamondbacks) has seen more highly touted prospects reach the majors in the last few years. Plus, it’s always fun watching a David slay a Goliath.

One-Hitter, Two-Hitter, Three-Hitter

Speaking of Buchholz, his outing on Saturday was heart-breaking. He was cruising for 7 2/3 shutout innings, striking out 9 and walking 2. Then he gave up that two-run shot to Akinori Iwamura. At the time of the homer, Buchholz’s pitch count was at 110. I have to think that Buchholz’s no-hitter last year affected Terry Francona’s decision to let him pitch the eighth. With Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon in your pen (none of whom pitched the prior day), why else would you send Buchholz to the mound with six outs remaining? More importantly, though, why leave Buchholz in the game after giving up a single to Dioner Navarro with his 102nd pitch?

What You Should Be Watching This Week:

Max Scherzer, Jon Meloan, Kevin Mulvy

Aquilino Lopez, Masahide Kobayashi, Chris Perez

Ronnie Cedeno, Blake Dewitt, Alexi Ramirez

Brewers at Cubs, Mets at Diamondbacks, Rays at Red Sox

Major League Words of Wisdom: The greatest trick the jinx ever pulled was convincing the world it did not exist.

Phil Brody resides in Los Angeles, California. He works as a freelance writer and director. In his spare time, he devours everything baseball. He can be reached at: philbrody@earthlink.net

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Fantasy Sports, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Minor League Baseball and Scouting, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, baseball, fantasy baseball, prospects, scouting and player development | No Comments »

What’s Wrong With Francisco Liriano?

Posted by Alan Hull on 27th April 2008

p1franciscolirianosi.jpgThis is a question that many, especially within the Minnesota Twins organization are asking right now as the decision was made last week to option Francisco Liriano down to AAA Rochester. All of the indications are that Liriano is healthy and isn’t experiencing any pain in his delivery, so the problem must be either mechanical and/or to some extent mental.

There has been quite a bit written on the mechanical changes in Liriano’s delivery, which were made in order to help his long-term health. However, Baseball-Intellect has made the suggestion that the new delivery may be affecting the quality of his stuff:

His fastball, normally 93 - 95, sat at around 90 while his slider lacked that hard bite we’re used to seeing. Both pitches also lacked oomph. As expected, Liriano was rusty. He didn’t command his pitches all that well. However, it isn’t his control I would worry about. We need to see if his stuff can return to the quality it once was or at least get close to it.

Another article, written by pitching mechanics expert, Chris O’Leary commented on the above mentioned article, agreeing that the new arm slot would be advantageous for Liriano in the long-term as his pitching side elbow (PAS) is lower at the end of his delivery:

The key thing to notice is how his PAS elbow stays lower. This should reduce the strain on both his elbow and his shoulder…I should mention that I think that a major cause of Francisco Liriano’s elbow problems was his reliance on his hard slider. Combine the slider, which is probably the worst pitch for the elbow due to the forceful supination, with questionable pitching mechanics and you have a recipe for disaster.

Both articles are in agreement that Liriano’s mechanics, particularly the angle of his elbow, have changed. They are unsure if this is the reason for his struggles. His velocity is down a bit from where it was in 2006, which may be a product of a relative lack of arm strength.

I believe sending Francisco Liriano down will do him a lot of good and will allow him to regain his feel for his fastball and slider, which have both been lacking this season. He may not regain his 2006 form this season, or any season for that matter, but right now, the expectations are very high and he may be pressing.

The Minnesota Twins aren’t going to be able to seriously contend this season, so their number one priority should be to get Francisco Liriano back on track, whether that is a mechanical issue or otherwise is anyone’s guess.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , ,

Related posts

Posted in MLB, Minnesota Twins, baseball, injuries | No Comments »

Frank Thomas Re-Signs with the A’s, How Do You Like Me Now?

Posted by Alan Hull on 25th April 2008

hurt.jpgThe Oakland Athletics announced their decision to bring back DH Frank Thomas for $337,000, or the prorated portion of the league minimum after the Toronto Blue Jays made the decision to release Thomas when the slugger complained publicly of the Jays’ decision to cut back his playing time. The Blue Jays are still on the hook for the remaining salary of the two-year $18.12 million deal Thomas signed with the Jays following the 2006.

Thomas had one of his better years in recent memory for the A’s in 2006 where he hit .270/.381/.545 with 39 home runs and 114 RBI. Thomas seemed content in his time in Oakland and upon re-signing with the A’s, he said, “I never wanted to leave [Oakland]. The finances didn’t work out a couple of years ago, but I sincerely wanted to stay. So when Toronto released me, this was my first choice, to come back here.”

Thomas will step in as the A’s full-time DH replacing the Jack Cust/Ryan Sweeney platoon they had been using.

The new A’s lineup will look something like this:

C- Kurt Suzuki
1B - Daric Barton/Mike Sweeney
2B - Mark Ellis
3B - Jack Hannahan/Donnie Murphy
SS - Bobby Crosby

LF - Jack Cust
CF - Ryan Sweeney
RF - Emil Brown
DH - Frank Thomas

This is still not a strong lineup by any means, but once RF Travis Buck returns from the disabled list and if 3B Eric Chavez can ever return healthy, the A’s have some chance of contending with a Los Angeles Angels team that is out two starters and a Seattle Mariners team that has looked lack-luster all season and doesn’t figure to get much better.

Frank Thomas isn’t going to make or break this team, but it is nice to add a high on-base percentage/high power guy to a lineup that was going to lack both.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Free Agent, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, MLB, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners | 2 Comments »

CIN Reds General Manager Wayne Krivsky Gets Fired, Walt Jocketty is Named New G.M.

Posted by Alan Hull on 23rd April 2008

dunn.jpgAfter 21 games, the Cincinnati Reds announced that they had decided to fire General Manager Wayne Krivsky and hire Special Assistant, and former General Manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, Walt Jocketty as his replacement. Krivsky was surprised by the move and said he was “completely shocked. I did not see this coming at all.”

Krivsky hadn’t done anything in his tenure to not deserve to be fired. If anything, his 2007 trade that sent Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Washington Nationals in exchange for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson was one of the worst in recent memory and none of Krivsky’s moves have been especially inspiring or have done anything to prove his worth otherwise.

Still, every MLB franchise should be viewed as it is; as a multi-million dollar corporation and the Reds are no different. When a major corporation fires its upper executives at strange times, such as the beginning of the major league season, it reflects poorly on the organization.

The Cincinnati Reds are at a juncture right now as they have an influx of young talent coming in and Krivsky’s decision to sit tight and wait out a portion of the season before doing anything drastic was the right move. For him to be fired 21 games into the season demonstrates a lack of a plan and a lack of direction.

Jocketty takes over a franchise at a pivotal time and if he acts rashly in order to appease the ownership, he will be making a big mistake.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Cincinnati Reds, MLB, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, baseball, predictions | No Comments »

You Know What Really Grinds My Gears? From Around the MLB

Posted by Alan Hull on 22nd April 2008

sabathia.jpgI’ve been hearing and observing some things this season that, simply put, are starting to grind my gears. Here are some assorted gripes I have with MLB.

Toronto Blue Jays, what the hell are you doing?

The Blue Jays released Frank Thomas after he hit .167/.306/.333 with 3 home runs in 60 AB and he complained about being informed that he would split time at DH. Are you kidding me? First, the Jays made a terrible decision to cut back the Big Hurt’s play time based on his first 60 AB when he had started slowly each of the past two seasons and wound up just fine. Second, they released Thomas, which, despite Thomas’ accusations, negates any financial considerations as they are still on the hook for the $10 million they owe him in 2008. Third, the Blue Jays have made repeated claims that they plan on contending this season and then they release one of their best hitters? The Blue Jays are completely off their rocker. Good luck trying to contend. I am excited to see the A’s make a run at contention if they opt to pay Thomas a cool prorated league minimum. Which leads me to…

IT’S CALLED SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!

The beginning of the MLB seasons can be kind of frustrating for sports writers and analysts alike because there just isn’t a lot to comment on. I swear that about half of the content that comes out at Baseball Prospectus right now is making fun of small sample size, while half of the content coming out of ESPN is about over-analyzing small sample size. C.C. Sabathia isn’t pitching well, small sample size. The Tigers aren’t playing well, small sample size. I’m tired of reading articles about how David Ortiz is having trouble establishing himself. Fans who are savvy with statistical concepts don’t care about reading article after article about flukish performances and fans who aren’t aware of the concept shouldn’t be mislead by useless discussion about whether or not C.C. Sabathia’s career is over. And anyone who makes a living on their baseball opinions, you of all people should not buy into any of this stuff. See above.

Paul O’Neil? Really? Really?

Yankees fans booed reliever LaTroy Hawkins for wearing uniform #21 because it was Paul O’Neil’s number. Hawkins wore the number to honor Roberto Clemente, his idol. I liked O’Neil. He was a good little player, but come on? Is that really a good reasons to boo a man for wearing Roberto Clemente’s number? I don’t get it.

In Your Face, Dusty Baker!

Dusty Baker unwisely decided to split up time at first base between Scott Hatteberg and Joey Votto to start the season. In the long-run, it doesn’t really matter, but since that decision, Votto has, unsurprisingly, hit well and Hatteberg has not. Votto is now playing full-time it seems. Just wait until he has a 1-20 slump. I cringe to think about it.

Free Felix Pie

The Cubs, on the other hand, have not yet learned their lesson and Felix Pie remains a fringe player for them. Again, this guy can play. Just let the guy play. I promise he’ll hit. And what were the Cubs thinking when they (temporarily) moved their second best pitcher, Rich Hill to the bullpen?

Well, as it turns out, this article winds up being more about small sample size than anything else, which is funny and ironic. Wake me up in June.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , Baseball Prospectus, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Fantasy Sports, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, baseball, fantasy baseball | 3 Comments »

Links: Bonds & Hurt to the A’s?, Kid in Japan Gives up 66 Runs in 1.1 IP, Greg Maddux Can Be Caught with Eyes Closed, Tim McCarver is Insane and More

Posted by Alan Hull on 22nd April 2008

nakatashospringkoshienstart_1.jpgWith Frank Thomas released from the Blue Jays, would the A’s consider signing Thomas and Barry Bonds? (Athletics Nation)

Also, The Dugout does their take of this situation.

——————————

Holy crap. Some kid in Japan gave up 66 runs in 1.1 innings before being pulled. He threw 250 pitches to get to that point. That’s some great coaching there, guy. (Bugs and Cranks)

——————————

That Greg Maddux, he sure is accurate. I’ll bet you could catch him with your eyes closed. (ESPN)

——————————

Tim McCarver is insane. (Awful Announcing)

——————————

Discussing the Tampa Bay Rays quickly rising payroll, which will be at least $54 million next season. The Rays will have some difficult decisions to make. (Rays Index)

——————————

Dusty Baker is working hard to ruin Joey Votto. (Vegas Watch)

——————————

The worst free agent signings of all time. (Sports Illustrated)

My only gripes are that he has Barry Zito’s contract as #9. Something tells me that one will wind up just below Mike Hampton’s when all is said and done.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: Athletics Nation, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in Barry Bonds, Cincinnati Reds, MLB, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, baseball, links | No Comments »

The Evan Longoria Extension: Taking the Trend to the Next Level

Posted by Alan Hull on 22nd April 2008

0324rays415.jpg

Simply put, I wanted to go on the record and state that the Evan Longoria extension was absolutely brilliant. The terms are for six guaranteed years at $17.5 million, plus a one-year option for 2014 and a two-year option for 2015-16, which could raise the total value to nine-years and $44 million, securing the third baseman through his age 30 season. In doing so, the Rays no longer have to worry about keeping Longoria’s arbitration clock down and can get him into their everyday lineup in the short-term, having secured him through all of his club-controlled seasons and possibly beyond. The downside, which is almost nil, as Andrew of True Blue LA put it: “Even if Longoria gets hurt today and never plays another game, the Rays are only out 2.8 million dollars a year for the life of the contract, or one less journeyman middle reliever a year.” There is almost no downside.

The upside of this deal is undeniable as they have given themselves the opportunity to have a superstar-level player for all of his best seasons. Assuming Longoria remains healthy and they exercise both options, they will pay Longoria an average of $4.89 Million per season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA thinks of Longoria being worth an average of 6.5 WARP for the next seven seasons, which translates to $105,550,000 million MORP (or Marginal Value Above Replacement Player). The projection doesn’t extend beyond seven seasons, but you get the idea. Not only that, the projection sees Longoria as a .270/.350/.475-type player, hitting between 23-29 home runs per season, which I see as a bit of a pessimistic outlook given his excellent plate discipline and pure hitting ability. In the end, if Longoria develops into a fraction of the type of player he can develop into, this contract will be a steal beyond even the Mets’ extension with David Wright, worth $55 million over six years.

Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Freidman, is thinking outside the box in order to keep his young core of players intact and this truly demonstrates a commitment to winning, not just of the nominal sort. In the past, the Rays have given contract extensions to their young players like Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli, which have both proven to be solid moves, despite Baldelli’s injuries. This past off-season, the Rays extended James Shields and Carlos Pena. At this stage, it may be too late to do so, but they still have some chance of extending B.J. Upton and Scott Kazmir, but even if they fail to do so, the Rays are at a juncture right now as they have such a wealth of talent on the verge of making major contributions and they are taking themselves very seriously.

The Tampa Bay Rays have done something unprecedented, signing a player who has less than one year of experience to an extension and this kind of genius may not catch on right away. I doubt the Cincinnati Reds will be clamoring to extend Jay Bruce, although they might be wise to consider it.

Not even Theo Epstein nor Billy Beane nor Mark Shapiro have attempted something like this, although maybe Longoria was just the right kind of player, where, of those three General Managers I’ve named, only Mark Shapiro had a player worthy of such an early commitment when he locked up Grady Sizemore to his record six-year $23.45 million deal.

This is an exciting time to be a Rays fan.

Sphere: Related Content

Technorati Tags: , , Baseball Prospectus, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related posts

Posted in MLB, Tampa Bay Rays, Uncategorized, baseball, baseball economy, contract extension, market trends, prospects, scouting and player development | 1 Comment »

 
Close
E-mail It