Talking Baseball with MLB Scout Frankie Piliere
Posted by Alan Hull on April 6th, 2008
I was lucky enough to get the chance to speak with MLB, minor league and amateur scout, Frank Piliere of Saber-Scouting in an interview covering a number of topics including some of the minor league’s top talents, some of the Major League’s top, young talents and the scout’s 20-80 scale. For contractual reasons, Mr. Piliere could not divulge which team he works for, but he specializes in scouting the New York Yankees’ and Washington Nationals’ farm teams. I’d like to thank Mr. Piliere for taking time out to talk with Baseball Mastermind.
Baseball Mastermind: How did you get your start scouting? Did you play high school ball, college ball? What position did you play?
Frankie Piliere: I played high school baseball and some small collegiate summer leagues up here [in the North East] with the intent on playing college ball full time. I was a left-handed pitcher and a DH. While doing all this, I covered prospects and wrote scouting reports for a site called Scout.com. I mostly covered Yankee prospects and they eventually made me their draft expert. I made a ton of contacts in scouting through that and started getting some offers. So, I decided to pursue that. And, that was kind of what kept me from comitting to college baseball.
BM: One of the hot-topics in 2008 was the question of who was the better pitching prospect in 2008, Joba Chamberlain of the New York Yankees or Clay Buchholz of the Boston Red Sox. Obviously, both are top talents, but if you were pressed to choose one over the other, who and why?
FP: Honestly, I’d take Chamberlain easily. I like pitchers with durable frames and I really don’t think the raw stuff is as close as people think it is. Joba has four legit pitches, two that are plus-plus. People forget how well-rounded he is because of how he just uses the two pitches out of the pen. That being said, I love Buchholz but Joba is a special special guy.
BM: I totally agree and had Joba Chamberlain ranked higher on my list. I think the frame, the velocity and the power slider are all incredible and his curve and change have become underrated.
FP: Exactly…just today for example, [Chamberlain] dropped a big curveball on his first pitch [against the Tampa Bay Rays].
BM: Here’s another straight comparison: Colby Rasmus or Cameron Maybin?
FP: Tough call but I’d take Maybin. You might not see him really explode right away in his career but you might look up in a few years and see he’s become a superstar. Kind of a guy who was, I don’t want to say rushed, but let’s just say he’s still learning on the job. I like his upside more than Rasmus’.
BM: There is some question about both players’ abilities to control the strike zone - walk/strikeout - how do you think their skills will develop in the coming season and beyond? What kind of players do you see these guys becoming? I’ve seen some compare Rasmus to Grady Sizemore, is that a bit generous at this juncture?
FP: I think [that comparison is] a bit generous. I never think it’s fair to compare to guys like that…guys that are very unique. Rasmus has the potential to have some real big league power. Maybin might be a bit of a project but in a couple years, it could really be worth the wait. Plate discipline will probably be an issue for both but if you look at the good prospects who have come up and developed, their plate disciplined has steadily improved also. Neither, I don’t think, will be burst-onto-the-scene type guys, they’ll need to continue developing.
BM: If you were GM of the Marlins or Cardinals, would you try to give these guys another year in the minors, especially with neither team seriously looking like contenders this season? I understand Maybin has started in AA and Rasmus in AAA. Obviously, it will be contingent on performance, but looking at it from right now, how would you handle the situation?
FP: I’d go out of my way to be sure they got their development time, yes. Look back at most of the prospect busts. You will find a lot of evidence of them being rushed.
BM: Speaking of rushing prospects, I’ve noticed that the Minnesota Twins have started the season with Carlos Gomez as their starting center fielder. He was also rushed by the New York Mets before he was traded. He seems like a guy who has some issues with his approach. How do you see him doing in 2008?
FP: I could really envision him having some problems this year. He’s extremely raw, a classic example of a tools first player. But from what I know, he’s a guy with pretty good makeup. So, with that in mind, he might be able to benefit from learning on the job so to speak and mainly, I trust the Twins…brilliant in player development.
BM: The Twins did receive quite a bit of criticism for the return they got on the Johan Santana trade. How did you feel about the prospects they received and the speculation of the players that might have been on the table from other teams?
FP: I think basically, they took a big gamble and put a lot of trust in their scouts that these lower level prospects are going to pan out, so I can appreciate that. They are confident that their scouts evaluated these prospects correctly. But, I do feel they left a much safer deal on the table if it is true that [Philip] Hughes and [Melky] Cabrera were attainable.
BM: Changing gears a bit, let’s talk about the wealth of young talent the Tampa Bay Rays have put together. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Rays to win 88 games in 2008, is that totally insane?
FP: I think that number is high but not insane. I think they’re a .500 team though. And if anything goes wrong, they have the luxury of reinforcements like no other team has in their farm system.
BM: I’m a Los Angeles Dodger fan myself and I’ve been kind of rooting for Edwin Jackson to succeed since he was traded. He looks like another guy who was severely rushed. Does he have any hope of holding down the door from guys like Wade Davis and Jacob McGee in 2008? Command has always been an issue but he does seem to be improving little by little.
FP: I think so, and you are right, severely rushed indeed. I just watched him yesterday and the stuff is still eye-popping, so you have to give a guy like that as many shots as possible. You don’t want him to get away and takeoff elsewhere.
BM: Let’s talk about Evan Longoria: I wrote that of all the prospects in 2008, he may be the one who makes the most seamless transition with his great approach, pure hitting and great defense at third. Do you think the Rays are going to promote him at the end of the month when they can get that extra year out of him, or keep him down until the summer, longer?
FP: Going by their history, as much as they deny it, they will probably keep him down just long enough to keep the arbitration clock from starting.
BM: I’m personally a big fan of Longoria’s defense, which I don’t think gets enough mention. He was a SS for CSULB and he’s very athletic at third. What are your thoughts on Longoria’s defense?
FP: You’re very right. It just rarely gets talked about because his bat is so prolific. Do I think he’s a gold glover? I don’t know if he’s that kind of guy but he has the arm and the hands to be an extremely good defender.
BM: Comparing Longoria to 2007 top prospect Alex Gordon, how do you think they compare? Who would you take between the two?
FP: I’ll take Longoria. Better complete package in terms of defense and probably a bit more power.
BM: Gordon had a rough rookie season. Do you think he was overrated in 2007 or was that just a bump in the road for him?
FP: I’m still a big Gordon believer. I don’t think he’s going to hit for the power that people thought but he’s a superb pure hitter and I think we’ll see him develop into that, at least partially this year.
BM: Final point of discussion for Tampa Bay: Have you had the chance to see David Price pitch?
FP: I have. In a word…wow. When scouts talk total package…he is what you’d picture.
BM: How do you think he compares with the MLB’s top left-handed pitching prospects, like Clayton Kershaw and Franklin Morales?
FP: The thing is with Price is that his stuff is on par with those guys but the command is far superior. And it’s just so rare. Power lefties alone are rare, but a power lefty with great command? Now thats special.
BM: So you’d take him over Clayton Kershaw?
FP: Yes, I would.
BM: How would you rate his pitches on the 20-80 scale (where 50 is Major League average, 60 is above average, 70 well above average, 80 outstanding)?
FP: I’d have to say his fastball is about a 65. When I saw him, he was throwing well enough to be a 70 though. His slider is probably a 60. His changeup, I only saw on a limited basis but I’d say a 55. It’s not a real out pitch but he commands it well and it’s more than fine for his third pitch.
BM: Looking at the crop of players in the minor leagues this season, who do you see rising to become the top prospects in 2009?
FP: I’m going to assume Price is still a prospect and say he’s #1 for ‘09. [New York Yankees catching prospect] Jesus Montero I think is going to really explode this year and be a top 10 guy. [Detroit Tigers right-handed pitcher] Rick Porcello probably fits in there also.
BM: Wow, you’re really high on Jesus Montero. What is it that you like about him?
FP: I think people read too much into some of the negative press he got from Baseball America and forgot what a truly prolific hitter he can be. [He has] 80 power, and that’s real 80 power I think.
BM: I’m unfamiliar with the controversy with BA. What did they say?
FP: They tried implying that there were age disputes and that the Yankees rebuilt his swing. But what they don’t account for is that rebuilding a young hitter’s swing happens a lot.
BM: You would rate him above Baltimore Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters then?
FP: As far as pure upside, I think Montero could be a better hitter than Wieters. Wieters is a safer bet, however. I think he will stick at the position, yes. From what I understand, the Yankees are determined to keep him there.
BM: The heir apparent to Jorge Posada. Along the same vein, which prospects do you see making big leaps in 2008?
FP: Rick Porcello will probably be the hot prospect of the year but he’s a pretty obvious one. I think Collin Balester in Washington is ready to really take the next step and pitch in the big leagues for them this year. Dellin Betances should have a big year too; I’m sure Yankee fans will be happy to hear that one.
BM: The Yankees farm system is looking very good and they’ve really become aware of how important player development is, where they lost sight of that for a while. The Detroit Tigers have also been quietly capitalizing on signing top talents, regardless of cost. When do you see this trend really catching on?
FP: It’s no coincidence that the teams spending big on their MLB roster are spending big in the draft and have seemed to learned that the draft is a solid investment. Unless some other teams really make a commitment to deep drafts and more in-depth scouting or spending big like the Yankees/Tigers, they are going to continue to fall short.
BM: I feel the Pirates will never be able to rebuild until they start really investing in the draft, which they’re starting to do now with Huntington, good news for Pirates fan. Which teams do you feel really “get it” as far as scouting and player development are concerned?
FP: I think the Twins really get it, as I said earlier. They aren’t big spenders but they leave no stone unturned and have very deep drafts. I think the Angels and Dodgers are right there with them. As you mentioned, the Pirates. If they are going to keep picking high, they have to eventually simply pick the best player. I think the same goes for the Cardinals. I didn’t really understand their selection of [shortstop Pete] Kozma this past draft.
BM: I’d like to now talk about two guys who are not prospects, but somewhat confounding in terms of projection: Justin Upton and Delmon Young, albeit for different reasons. Everyone believes Upton will become a super-star (when he was drafted, his tools were compared to Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.) and many talent evaluators say that if he were still a prospect, he’d be #1, but most people shy away from projecting what he will become in the coming years and his peak. What do you see him doing this season and what kind of player do you see him becoming?
FP: Very tough call on guys like him, but I think for a good perspective, look at how his brother developed. Granted, I think Justin is better than BJ but I see his development taking a year or so. He’ll be a solid player this year but not that superstar status just yet.
BM: How many homeruns do you see him hitting in 2008?
FP: I’ll say 18.
BM: Justin Upton has an incredibly quick bat, but a more level swing than his brother, do you see him as more of a high batting average guy and what kind of power do you see him developing? I understand that’s so hard to say for a 20 year old. I’d just your opinion.
FP: I think he’s a legit 25-30 HR guy but it sort of depends on how his frame fills out. He could be more of a power guy than I can expect.
BM: How about Delmon Young. Do you see him as a guy who was rushed or a guy whose approach/makeup have held him back?
FP: I think his arrival was well timed. I just think he was never use to anything other than dominating his competition. I think he’s a masher in the making though.
BM: What do you see for him this season and beyond?
FP: I think he’s a .300+, 30 HR threat for a very long time. I know it’s a lofty but he’s another guy who people quickly forget how much he’s been touted.
BM: Kevin Goldstein of BP said Young reminded him of a Young Vlad Guerrero and some have compared him to Albert Belle. Is his ceiling that high?
FP: And its well deserved. I see a lot of Belle although I don’t know if its fair to expect 50 HR.
BM: I’m very interested in the scout’s 20-80 scale and is something that I’m trying to learn about. I’ve read your site’s scouting tutorial and the info you linked and I think I have a solid understanding of it all. With regards to pitching, who in the Major Leagues would you rate as having the highest grade fastball, an 80? I would imagine someone like a Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander would rate well because of their great velocity and in King Felix’s case, ridiculous movement.
FP: Well anyone who is consistently 96+. So the guys you mentioned plus probably Joba Chamberlain, [Florida Marlins RHP Matt] Lindstrom, [Detroit Tigers RHP Joel] Zumaya. As far as starters, it’s a rarity….perhaps Brad Penny too when he’s right.
BM: How much does movement and location figure into the grading? is it mostly based on velocity?
FP: If a guy is consistently 93-96 MPH with crazy movement, he’d have a chance at an 80 even though the typical scale would say 70. Its mostly about velocity but it must be adjusted for movement if its there.
BM: How about curveball, slider, change? Who has the best of each in the bigs?
FP: For a curve I’d have to say [Barry] Zito. Slider, someone like [Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez] or perhaps Joba even though some say it’s a 70. [Johan] Santana is probably around an 80 changeup. To be clear though, 80’s are extraordinarily rare.
BM: There may only be a few 80’s in any given year?
FP: Sometimes not even a few.
BM: And for a final question (I ask everyone I know this): who are your picks for division winners, wild card winners, the World Series winner, MVP, Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year award for each league?
FP: AL Divisions - Yankees, Indians, Angels, WC - Mariners….NL Divisions - Phillies, Cubs, D-Backs, WC - Mets. World Series is Indians over D-Backs. MVP’s - Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano. Cy Young - Fausto Carmona, Johan Santana, ROY - Joba Chamberlain, Johnny Cueto.
BM: Thanks so much for your time, Mr. Piliere.
FP: No problem, glad to be of help.