MLB Preview 2008: Top-10 Key Players on Contenders - National League
Posted by Alan Hull on March 17th, 2008
When I last checked in, I covered the ten most important players on contenders in the American League. These guys basically have performance that is questionable because of their age, possibility of injury, breakout or collapse potential, while their teams are also banking on them for performance. If these guys perform up to expectations or beyond, their teams will flourish, if they fail, for one reason or another, theirs teams’ playoff hopes may be in jeopardy.
10. Brian Schneider, 31, C-L, NYM. I talked a bit about the somewhat bizarre trade/signing situation that resulted in the New York Mets winding up with Brian Schneider as their catcher. Between Schneider and Ramon Castro, the Mets have the possibility of a passable defense/offense platoon at catcher. Schneider is the single, greatest weakness on a championship-caliber Mets. If Schneider can OPS in the .650 range where he has the past two seasons, he’s going to bring down an otherwise strong Mets lineup.
9. Brett Myers, 27, RHP, PHI. There aren’t enough bad things I can say about the Philadelphia Phillies idea of moving Brett Myers, their second-best pitcher, to the bullpen last season. Keep in mind, they had just given Myers a three-year $33 million extension the off-season before. The experiment was a failure, Myers pitched about as well as he would have as a starter over significantly fewer innings, but the Phillies still managed to make the playoffs. Something about a kid named Kyle Kendrick. This season, Myers will move back to the rotation. How he holds up under a starter’s workload will have a huge impact on the Phillies playoff hopes.
8. Rafael Soriano, 28, RHP, ATL. Rafael Soriano has always had great stuff, but 2008 will be his first gig as a full-time closer. I have no doubt that Soriano will succeed in that role and he will have to in order for the Braves, who have an outside chance of competing for the Wild Card.
7. Ublado Jimenez/Franklin Morales, 24/22, RHP/LHP, COL. The Colorado Rockies were a great story in 2007, but the chances of them beating out the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers this season are slim. If they have any hope, it lies in the upside Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have in the rotation to provide quality innings behind Jeff Francis. Both pitchers provided the Rockies with a great boost in the rotation down the stretch Morales is one of baseball’s top prospects, but his stats have not matched up with his stuff, which is off the charts. Both of these guys have some control issues they’re going to have to overcome in order succeed in the unfriendly Coors Field altitude.
6. Yovani Gallardo, 22, RHP, MIL. Ben Sheets is the undeniable ace of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation. When healthy, Sheets is on a short list of the most dominating pitchers in the game, but after three seasons of injuries, the Brewers will be looking instead to Yovani Gallardo to lead the pitching staff. The Brewers are at a slight disadvantage to the Chicago Cubs in terms of their starting rotation. Between Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Gallardo, I’ll take Gallardo as the ace regardless of age.
5. Chad Billingsley, 23, LAD. As much hype as Clayton Kershaw is getting in Spring Training, Chad Billingsley is the best young pitcher in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization and by the end of the 2008 season, he will be the Dodgers ace. The Dodgers lack the ace 1A-type pitcher that teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets have in Brandon Webb and Johan Santana, but
4. Kosuke Fukudome, 31, RF-L, CHI. Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella has wavered over where Kosuke Fukudome would hit to start the season, between the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup. That decision will have far less impact on the Cubs lineup than the decision already made for Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Theriot to occupy the 1-2 spots with their speed, but lack of on-base percentage. As I covered in my in-depth look at Fukudome, how his power translates in the MLB is the biggest question with him.
3. Stephen Drew, 25, SS-L, AZ. Stephen Drew, like much of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ young lineup, had a disappointing season at the plate, but now looks poised for a breakout. The basic skill set is still there–his isolated power and patience were solid for a middle infielder, leading me to believe a .270/.360/.450 with 15-20 home runs season is very possible. The D-Backs had one of the worst offenses in the NL last season, based on performance, but the talent is certainly there. They will need Drew along with Chris Young and Justin Upton to improve to decidedly beat out the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies.
2. Rickie Weeks, 25, 2B-R, MIL. In 2008 no teams may be matched up as closely as the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers who seek to win the National League Central. A breakout or a bit of luck can and will make the difference in the end. I predicted Rickie Weeks to have a breakout in 2008–it’s going to happen–and when it does, he will be a key part of a very good offense, along with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.
1. Pedro Martinez, 36, RHP, NYM. Pedro Martinez can still deal. The New York Mets are set to enter 2008 with one of the league’s best rotations but the age of Martinez and Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez and the possibility of regression for John Maine and Oliver Perez offer some uncertainty. For every inning Pedro Martinez pitches for the Mets in 2008, especially in the playoffs, dramatically increases the Mets’ World Series aspirations.
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