Rotogod Says: Top-20 30-30 Candidates – Fantasy Baseball 2008
Posted by Rotogod on March 3rd, 2008
Rotogod here. Listen and listen carefully: one of the surest ways to a successful fantasy baseball season is building a well-rounded offense that maximizes production at every position and in every offensive category. No type of player can accomplish this better than the power/speed player. One dimensional players such as Scott Podsednik are detrimental in building a strong offense because they provide superior production in only one category, stealing 35+ bases, while drastically hurting two categories (assuming they hit for average), bringing down power and RBI. Let’s just say that for every Juan Pierre on your team, you’re going to need a Lance Berkman to make up for the power loss. But if you invest in a power/speed guy, it’s kind like having the proportionate production of Berkman and Pierre, while only taking up one slot on your team.
Rotogods Unbeatable Rules of Fantasy Baseball: One dimensional players hurt your team almost as much they help. Build your team around well-rounded players, always targeting potential 20-20 and 30-30 players. Find a 40-40 player and you’re making history.
I’ve seen some pretty worthless fantasy baseball lists this off-season: top five first basemen, top-five anything for that matter. I could rattle off a top five left-handed hitting second basemen, but who cares or who needs it?
This is the list of lists, my friends. Today, I will cover the top-twenty power/speed combos in the game. This list will lean towards home run/stolen bases totals and the balance between those two categories, as opposed to either power or speed, so for the sake of the list, Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes are not on the list, nor is Matt Holliday or Carlos Lee. The same goes for Russell Martin, who is more of a 15-15-type guy, but a lot of his value is tied to his position, so he’s not on the list either. This is the 30/30 list.
Rotogod’s Top-20 Power/Speed Players
1. Alex Rodriquez, 3B-R, NYY: The man called A-Rod has gone 40-40 (one of only four all-time), 40-20 multiple times, and even 50-20 in 2007. Although he has never gone 30-30, that’s hardly the point. Rodriguez is the best power/speed player in the game and that has been the case for the last decade. This is hardly a bold statement as he is also arguably the best power/speed combo player to ever play the game. Hell, he may even be the greatest player to ever play the game. The point is, coming off the ridiculous year he had last seaon (.314 BA, 54 HR, 156 RBI, 143 R, 24 SB) Rodriguez is simply the best.
2. David Wright, 3B-R, NYM: David Wright has been a good fantasy baseball producer since he broke into the National League in 2004 at the age of 21, but the 25 year-old third baseman is now one of the best all-around players in the game. Prior to this year, most scouts felt his ability to steal bases was mainly a product of good base running and instincts, as he stole 17 in 2005 and 20 in 2006, but Wright took his game to the next level when he stole 34 bases last season with only 5 CS. There is nothing to say he can’t maintain his 30-30 status and incredible production across the board in 2008.
3. Hanely Ramirez, SS-R, FL: After only two seasons in the bigs, it can be argued that Hanley Ramirez is the now the best fantasy contributor in the game. The 24 year-old shortstop posted unbelievable numbers last season, hitting .332 with 29 HR, 81 RBI, 125 R (which I would call Miguel Cabrera numbers) as well as 51 SB in one of the bigger pitcher’s ballparks in the NL. He will without a doubt steal over 30 bases, so the only question is his power, which may be of some concern after off-season shoulder surgery, which I covered, but there’s no question he will still be a 5×5 monster with his youth and talent.
4. Jimmy Rollins, SS-B, PHI: When Jimmy Rollins’s power sky-rocketed in 2006 when he went 25-36, many analysts felt the 5’8” shortstop would never post such power numbers again. However, in 2007 he defied all laws of being vertically-challenged, belting 30 jacks without sacrificing any of his speed, stealing 41 bases. Yes, the secret is out: Jimmy Rollins is a first round draft pick and one of the new “Big Three Shortstops,” along with Ramirez and Jose Reyes.
5. Ryan Braun, 3B/LF-R, MIL: Ryan Braun had one of the greatest offensive seasons of all-time as a rookie, breaking the rookie slugging percentage record, slugging .632 in 450 at-bats. Now, I’m about as pessimistic of Braun in 2008 as anyone—I don’t think he’s going to hit .320, closer to .300, but after he hit 44 home runs and stole 19 bases between his time in AAA and the majors, there’s no reason to think he can’t go 30-20 and maybe 35-20 with over 100 runs and RBI.
6. Alfonso Soriano, LF-R, CHC: Let me try to summarize my thoughts on Alfonso Soriano: he is a ridiculously talented freak of nature with unbelievable power for man who only weighs 180 lbs. Yeah, he doesn’t believe in the concept of taking a walk, but who cares? He is a true 30-30 man and is consistently a great producer every year. The only knock against him, fantasy-wise, is not his fault, as he is set to hit lead-off, which will hurt his RBI totals. You can’t go wrong drafting Alfonso Soriano.
7. Carlos Beltran, CF-B, NYM: Perhaps one of the best base sealers of all-time, Carlos Beltran is a offensive fantasy force. Not only can he hit home runs and swipe bags, he hits in the middle of a deadly lineup, which makes him a great RBI producer as well. He won’t hit for a great average, but neither will Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, or Jimmy Rollins and none of those guys are middle of the order hitters like Beltran. You can almost always count on this guy for solid performance in all categories.
8. Grady Sizemore, CF-L, CLE: Grady Sizemore is a guy who is just waiting to pull-off his first 30-30 season with possibly many more to come. Although in three seasons he has yet to hit 30 home runs, he has consistently hit in the mid 20’s and remember: he is still only 25 years-old. Although he has already broken-out into a great player, I feel a second breakout is still a possibility once he reaches his peak, similar to when Carlos Beltran went from being a guy who hit homeruns in the mid-20’s to a guy who can hit 40. This possible power breakout could very well be initiated by move from the lead-off spot to the three hole, which is a move manager Eric Wedge has considered at times, especially after Travis Haftner’s poor performance last season. Aside from his power potential, he is an athletic player who may be available in the mid-to-late second round, which would make him a steal.
9. B.J. Upton, 2B/CF-R, TB Here’s a guy whose bat was major league ready at the age of 19 and is without a doubt one of the most talented players in the game. B.J. Upton hit .300 last season in his breakout year and showed the patience of a veteran with a .386 OBP. Although some analysts are skeptical of Upton repeating a .300 average because of his high strikeouts, with players of Upton’s talent, of the super-talent caliber, he is also likely to improve as a hitter and make adjustments to his game. Upton missed a month last season and still hit 24 home runs, which put him right on track to hit 30 in a full season. The speed definitely there and Upton still qualifies at second base in 2008, which makes him even more valuable.
10. Brandon Phillips, 2B-R, CIN: Brandon Phillips has been one of the most surprising developments in recent years. A top prospect four years ago, all it took was a change of scenery and suddenly, Phillips turned into a 30-30 guy at second base, no less. Phillips plays in a great ballpark for hitters, but his plate discipline is a bit shaky (only 31 BB last season), leading me to believe I there will be some regression for Phillips in 2008. Phillips is still a 25-30 candidate at second, making him one of the most valuable players at his position.
11. Chris Young, CF-R, AZ: Chris Young was just three stolen bases away from being the first 30-30 rookie ever last season. If it wasn’t for a retardedly-bad pitch recognition that led to .237 batting average and 141 strikeouts, he would have seriously challenged Ryan Braun for the rookie of the year award. Regardless, I’ll bet my right arm he will not .237 again and is much more likely to hit .260-.280 this season after making a few adjustments in his swing over the off-season. Owners can wait a few extra rounds to draft him because of his low average last season, but don’t let this guy go because he is likely to be as valuable as Alfonso Soriano in 2008.
12. Corey Hart, RF-R, MIL: The 6’ 6” outfielder had a great year last season when hit .295 with 24 homeruns and stole 23 bases. Although he many not be a 30-30 guy just yet, Corey Hart is a major breakout candidate in 2008 and has a shot at 30-20. Judging from his minor league numbers, Hart has the capability to walk more than the 36 free-passes he drew in 2008, which also improves his overall numbers. Great producer in all offensive categories.
13. Gary Sheffield, DH-R, DET: At age 38, Sheffield did something he hadn’t done since he was 29—he had a 20-20 season, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 22 bases. Sheffield can still hit, but injuries and age have taken their toll and there is quite a bit of risk in taking him, so he would rank below Granderson in most drafts, but he remains the last player on this list with 30 home run potential in 2008, even if it may be based more on reputation than actual ability at this point.
14. Curtis Granderson, CF-L, DET: Curtis Granderon, along with Jimmy Rollins, started a new club last season—the 20-20-20-20 club (twenty homers, doubles, triples and stolen bases). I doubt that Granderson will hit .300 in 2008 unless he can hit better than .160 against lefties and at age 27, he doesn’t project for much more power. Still, he is almost a lock to go 20-20 again in 2008. Starting with Granderson, this list shifts to 20-20 and high upside power/speed guys.
15. Ian Kinsler, 2B-R, TEX: Kinsler had an interesting season, thriving at times and slumping at others but when the dust cleared, 20-20. With another season of experience and hitting at the Ballpark at Arlington, Kinsler is capable of improving his numbers a little bit across the board. I would look for a .280-.290 average and between 20-25 home runs and stolen bases.
16. Justin Upton, RF-R, AZ: Yes, he is only 20 years old, but his bat speed is so advanced it seems unnatural. He is so talented, teammate Orlando Hudson said he’s not just a five-tool player, he’s a ten-tool player. He is so talented that if he “only” goes 20-20 this year, he may make the leap to 30-30 the next. Put it this way, when he was drafted first overall in 2005, scouts compared his tools to A-Rod’s and Ken Griffey Jr.’s—how long did it take those players to become middle of order hitters after they broke into the majors and at what age? Answer: age 20, same as Upton. If you’re in a keeper league, he is absolute must-have, but he is of great value anywhere and is also someone who can be drafted in the later rounds this season, but probably never again.
17. Rickie Weeks, 2B-R, MIL: After being drafted second-overall in the 2003 amateur draft, Rickie Weeks made his debut as a starter at age 22, but injuries have stunted his development since then. Entering his age 25 season, Weeks is one of the top breakout candidates in the league. Weeks almost went 20-20 in 2007, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 25 bases in 409 at-bats. In terms of potential, Weeks has the power and speed to go 30-30 in 2008, but he will have to remain healthy in order to do so. He is a big breakout candidate this season.
18. Matt Kemp, RF-R, LAD: This guy is a personal favorite of Alan’s (huge homer, that guy), but I can see why–the talent is immense. Kemp already has one 20-20 season in the minors and last season he stole a combined 19 bases between AAA and the majors. He seems like a very good bet to go 20-20 this season with maybe a little more power and a solid batting average between .280-.300, hitting in the middle of the Dodger’s lineup.
19. Lastings Milledge, CF-R, WAS: Lastings Milledge has a wealth of talent and could have started in the outfield for the Mets last season, but they found inexplicable reasons not to, citing that one time he high-fived some fans after hitting a homerun at Shea and the fact that he recorded a hip-hop album (are you confused too?). I listed Milledge as my #1 sleeper candidate last week in my Sleepers, Deep Sleepers column. He seems fairly likely to go 20-20 in 2008 with the power being the only question at this point. 20-20 seems like an “at least” beyond next season.
20. Alex Gordon, 3B-L, KC: Gordon was the consensus top prospect in 2007, but scuffled badly in his rookie season. Still, Gordon managed to hit 15 homeruns and steal 14 bases by the end. I think 25/15 is a reasonable goal for Gordon in 2008, but if he hits fewer homeruns than that, his long-term projection will certainly take a hit as his monster 2006 season in AA will look more and more like a fluke. I still believe in the talent and see Gordon as a big post-hype breakout candidate.
Honorable Mention: Torii Hunter, CF-R, LAA: The $90 million man had his best season since 2002 in his walk year, hitting .287 with 28 home runs and 18 stolen bases. At age 32, I don’t think he will go 28/18 ever again, but 25/15 is possible for 2008. I’m guessing he’ll steal closer to 10 bases this season hitting in the middle of the order for the Angels, but Mike Scioscia.
The Future of Power/Speed
These guys are the future of the power/speed movement—all three were members of the talented 2005 high school outfield crop, along with Upton—who I would argue is already there.
Cameron Maybin, CF-R, FL: Cameron Maybin was sent to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera deal. He is a superstar in the making and despite a shoulder injury, hit .316 with 14 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 323 at-bats between rookie ball and AA. He may lack the strike zone control to step in as the starting center fielder for Florida, but he very well could make the adjustments right away and make a run at 20-20 and 20-30 even and the NL Rookie of the Year. I’d be worried about his power in 2008 more than his speed.
Colby Rasmus, CF-L, STL: The Cardinals traded Jim Edmonds to the Padres, leaving the centerfield job as Rasmus’s to lose. Last season in AA, Rasmus hit .275 with 29 home runs and 18 stolen bases, making him a 20-20 candidate right away. He may not hit for a high batting average right away, but Alan compares him to Grady Sizemore, which is saying a lot.
Andrew McCutchen, CF-R, PIT: Andrew McCutchen struggled in AA early in the season, but made great adjustments in the second half and earned praise for his work ethic and character. The talent is there, but he will likely spend most of 2008 in the minor leagues. Future 20-20 star.
Big ups to Alan and his brother Vince (the Prince) for co-authoring this article.
Sphere: Related Content