MLB Preview 2008: Top-30 Franchise Players - PART I
Posted by Alan Hull on March 26th, 2008
Every year, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus publishes a list he calls his top-50 MVP’s. The criteria is this: if all players in Major League Baseball were granted free agency today and a draft were held of all players, who would be drafted. The criteria calls for a six-year window because MLB rules state that a player who plays in the major leagues has six club-controlled seasons before they are granted free agency again.
I’ve always been a big fan of the article so I’m going to borrow the idea and give my top 30, the first round of a draft. In determining this list, I’ve consulted Baseball Prospectus’s WARP, which combines a position player’s offensive and defensive contribution and PECOTA, BP’s projection system. Also, I’ve looked at ESPN’s defensive zone rating, which I feel is a better defensive metric than the FRAA that BP uses. I don’t view any of those systems as law, but as references. The biggest factors I consider are a player’s age over the next six seasons, their established performance, their ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. If a player has upper echelon offensive or defensive ability, that may outweigh shortcomings in other areas (ex. Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki).
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon, Matt Holliday, Evan Longoria, Russell Martin, Brian McCann and Justin Verlander.
There are some concerns about these guys that kept them out of the first round. Of all the guys who missed the cut, Evan Longoria has the best chance and may vault his way into the top 20-25 by the end of the season. Russell Martin and Brian McCann would probably be around #31-35. Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are close to cracking the list as well.
Thanks to Andrew of True Blue LA and Brian Amaya for helping to compile the list.
Top-30 Franchise Players (2008-2013): Number 30 - 21
30. Cole Hamels, 24-29, LHP, PHI. Cole Hamels is the seventh pitcher and one of three lefties in the first round. Hamels had a dominant 183.1 innings while keeping his pitch-counts down, finishing with a 3.39 ERA with 177 strikeouts and 43 walks. His ERA was tenth best in all baseball among starting pitchers despite pitching in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, one of the top hitter’s parks in the game. He hasn’t proven he can pitch high innings totals but with a fast ball that sits 92-94, a great curve and a devastating change, the guy has demonstrated better control than the other two pitchers who didn’t make the cut and this six-season window represents his peak seasons.
29. Mark Teixeira, 28-33, 1B-B, ATL. At age 28, Lance Berkman would have made this list and Mark Teixeira is a much better defensive first base man. While missing some time, Mark Teixeira hit .306/.400/.563 with 30 home runs in 2007 and he actually got better after being traded out of Texas and the Ballpark at Arlington. His hitting may deteriorate by age 33, but 2008 is a contract year for him and he will be motivated playing for manager Bobby Cox and for a contender for the first time and will be one of the best offensive/defensive first basemen in baseball.
28. Curtis Granderson, 27-32, CF-L, DET. Curtis Granderson had a breakout season and he along with Jimmy Rollins established a new club: the 20-20-20-20 club - 23 home runs, 38 double, 23 triples and 26/1 on stolen base attempts while hitting .306/.351/.552. He also played stellar defense in center field in the vast Comerica Park outfield . I think a lot of people forget he’ll be 27 in 2008 so his 2007 season represents a peak rather than a step toward something greater. If Granderson can learn to hit left-handed pitching or manager Jim Leyland continues to bat him ninth against left-handed starters, he will provide both offense and defense at a middle of the diamond position and speed/power players age well.
27. Jay Bruce, 21-26, CF-L. Jay Bruce may not be ready to hit major league pitching yet in 2008, but he projects for more power than any prospect or player in his age group with the only possible exception being Justin Upton. Last season, Bruce hit a combined .319/.375/.587 in 521 AB with 26 home runs between A+ and AAA. He never slowed down in that span and he has earned rave reviews for his character and work ethic earning comparisons to Larry Walker by Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. On my Top-25 Prospects list, I projected 40+ home runs in his peak but he’ll start 2008 in AAA so his real value will be established in 2008-09.
26. Matt Kemp, 23-28, RF-R. Matt Kemp has a few holes in his game at the moment, most importantly his approach at the plate and his base-running and defense have been called into question amid trade rumors that I just don’t understand - I attribute it to his relative inexperience in baseball. Kemp has still managed to hit .312/.344/.496 with 17 home runs in 446 major league AB . I think his downside is Vernon Wells but Matt Kemp has outperformed Wells at every age and he’ll be in his peak in the next six seasons.
25. Carlos Beltran, 31-36, CF-L. Carlos Beltran was once one of the best athletes in the game and still plays a gold glove caliber center field. Last season he hit .276/.351/.525 with 33 home runs and 23 stolen bases. He may never be a 30-30 threat again, but as long as he can keep his legs healthy, he will continue to be one of the best all-around center fielders in the league.
24. Robinson Cano, 25-30, 2B-L. Robinson Cano has seen general improvement to all aspects of his game since he debuted in 2005 with the exception of his hitting, which has always been elite. Cano is one of two second basemen in the first round and the drop-off after is significant. His defense is now among the best at his position so his longterm value will lie in how his plate discipline and power develop.
23. B.J. Upton, 23-28, CF-R. Once regarded as one of the best young hitters in the game, B.J. Upton finally established himself in the majors in 2007, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 474 AB. Some wonder if he’ll continue to strike out as much as he did in 2007 (154), but I think his strike zone control is good enough where that total will decrease little by little in the coming seasons. Upton has the physical tools to play center field, but his value will be impacted based on how quickly he learns the position.
22. Scott Kazmir, 24-29, LHP. Scott Kazmir is the second best left-handed pitcher in the game and last season he pitched 206.2 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with 239 strikeouts and 89 walks despite having the worst defenses in the majors behind him. As he matures, his control may improve a bit, but his stuff is so lights out that he will dominate regardless.
21. Justin Upton, 20-25, RF-R. Nothing Justin Upton has done in his career, in terms of numbers, represents his ceiling despite his “disappointing” 2006 season and his breakout 2007 where he hit .319/.410/.551 with 18 home runs and 19 stolen bases between A+ and AA before struggling in the bigs. Guys like Justin Upton who debut in the majors before age 20 don’t come along every day. Like Jay Bruce, his true value will be established in the coming seasons but he could easily outperform his brother B.J. Upton and Grady Sizemore and Chris Young this season and almost certainly beyond.
Tomorrow 20-19…
Sphere: Related Content