Rotogod Says: Hot and Slow Starts, Buy or Sell? Part II - Fantasy Baseball 2008
Posted by Rotogod on May 19th, 2008
Rotogod here. Since the last time I wrote about hot and slow starts, some things have changed. For one, Brian Bannister no longer has a 0.86 ERA, but rather a much more Bannister-like 4.29 ERA. These numbers should be about in line with his true ability.
Fellow Kansas City Royal Zack Greinke continues to dominate to the tune of a 2.18 ERA. At the time I last checked in, his pitching peripherals were not in line with his performance (24 IP - 0.75 ERA 9/5 K/BB ratio), but those numbers have steadily improved and now Greinke has a much more healthy 43/15 K/BB ratio in 62 innings. This guy is the real deal.
Today, I’ll look at some other hot and cold performers and look at who will and won’t be able to keep up their performances
Don’t Believe the Hype
3. Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL / Lance Berkman, 1B, HOU: I guess I’m going to have to be the one to burst the bubble. Neither of these guys are going to hit .400 this season. I know, I just jinxed any possibility of it happening but personally, I’d rather be right. And Berkman isn’t going to win the triple-crown either. Berkman’s previous career high was .331, but that was seven seasons ago. He’s also hit .315 and .316. That doesn’t mean that these guys won’t have monster seasons because these guys are monster players and each is capable of an MVP-caliber season. Having said that, if you can flip either one for Ryan Braun or any elite top-ten-type player, I wouldn’t hessitate to do so.
2. Jon Lester, LHP, BOS: On the heels of pitching a no-hitter, maybe it’s hateful of me to point this out, but John Lester’s stock is at its apex right now. Great story. Solid pitcher, but there are red flags: 1) He pitches in a bad ballpark; 2) His K/BB ration (42/31) and K/9 (5.73) don’t match up with his ERA (3.41); and 3) He’s not going to get enough groundballs to make up that difference. Again, if you can sell him to the team in your league call DrunkSAWXfan, or BOSOXrule, do it while you can, because I see an ERA of at least 4.40 by season’s end.
1. Kevin Koukilis: Koukilis is hitting .329/.398/.605 with 9 HR and 33 RBI which puts him on track for 35 HR and 124 RBI. Fat chance. Last season, Youkilis started just as hot, hitting .328/.419/.502 in the first half then faded badly down the stretch. He may drive in more runs than usual hitting behind the big hitters, but I’ll be damned if he hits over 25 HR even in what might wind up being a career year.
Start Hot, Stay Hot
3. Eric Gagne, RHP, MIL: Start Hot Cold, Stay Hot Cold is in effect with Gagne, who is not the same pitcher he once was. His command of his fastball is poor and his secondary pitches aside from the change are no good. When you go cheap on your closers, there is always the risk they will be worth NOTHING, rather than merely adequate. Sorry, this is one of those cases.
2. Ervin Santana, RHP, LAA: Ervin earned a reputation for being a little weaker mentally last season as his home/road pitching splits were pretty poor and he wound up finishing with a 5.76 ERA, even being demoted to AAA mid-season. I can’t speak to his character or makeup, but his stuff is outstanding and he is finally living up to his great potential this season. He will win games on the Angels and pitching in front of their strong defensive club, he will finish with a strong ERA. It may not wind up being as low as 2.97, but it could wind up being below 3.50, which are bona fide ace numbers.
1. Josh Hamilton, CF, TEX: Checkered past aside, Josh Hamilton can flat-out hit. Forget about the crack and the tatoos for a second, how does .318/.370/.597 with 10 HR sound? And, it hasn’t even heated up in Texas yet. I can’t say he’ll maintain his high batting average - at least to that extent - but what good does predicting anything with Hamilton really do?
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:23 am
I like the Josh Hamilton and Chipper Jones picks. The others are pretty obvious…
May 20th, 2008 at 11:30 am
I guess it depends what you find to be obvious. If there was anyone who thought Ervin Santana was going to revert back to his head-case ways, maybe they needed a little expert reassurance.
Not to mention, I was watching Baseball Tonight and a lot of experts were talking about Lance Berkman winning the triple crown, so I just wanted to lay those ideas to rest.
Thanks for the feedback.