Baseball Mastermind

When the dust settled, neither the Boston Red Sox nor the New York Yankees ended up adding LHP Johan Santana, although much of the off-season has been dedicated speculating which powerhouse would land the best pitcher in baseball. With neither team willing to up their offers, the New York Mets jumped in and traded OF-R Carlos Gomez, RHP’s Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra for Santana. The Mets now have a small window of time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, but there shouldn’t be a problem as he did have to waive his no-trade clause in order to be traded at all. More news on that as it comes.

I don’t have to sit here and say how good Santana is. Best pitcher in baseball pretty much sums it up. How will this upset the balance of power in the National League East? First and foremost, for a Mets team that looked like the best team in the National League in 2007, but completely and utterly blew it down the stretch, this re-establishes them as the top dog in the National League. There 2008 Rotation will look like this:

1. Johan Santana, 29, LHP - 220 IP - 2.60 ERA - 240 K - 60 BB
2. Pedro Martinez, 36, RHP - 100 IP - 3.50 ERA - 100 K - 30 BB
3. John Maine, 27, RHP - 200 IP - 3.80 ERA - 150 K - 70 BB
4. Oliver Perez, 26, LHP - 180 IP - 4.00 ERA - 170 K - 80 BB
5. Orlando Hernandez, 42, RHP - 120 IP - 4.40 ERA - 100 K - 50 BB

That’s a pretty strong rotation and there were rumors that RHP Livan Hernandez had signed a one-year deal with the Mets, but it seems that won’t be necessary anymore. Should El Duque or Martinez go down with an injury, they still have RHP Mike Pelfrey to step in and I’m still convinced he can provide quality innings. This is a lot of depth in the rotation, certainly more than the Braves and a hell of a lot more than the Phillies. Hell, they might consider flipping a pitcher, if things go well for them.

As far as talent given up, none of the players they gave up are really going to hurt their chances in 2008 and with most of the pitchers surrendered far from the bigs, they really made out like bandits here. They didn’t even have to give up top prospect OF-L Fernando Martinez.
According to Baseball America’s most recent rankings of the Mets farm system, they gave up their #2 (Guerra), #3 (Gomez), #4 (Mulvey) and #7 (Humber) prospects. As far as the rankings of these players tools within the system, BA ranks Gomez as the best base runner, best athlete, best outfield defender and best outfield arm. Humber rated as having the best curveball, Mulvey had the best slider and Guerra, the best changeup.

Adding to the scouting reports, John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated Guerra as a B+ prospect, Gomez as a B prospect, Mulvey as a B (almost a B+) and Humber as a B-. His rankings were in agreement with Baseball America. No doubt, these are all good players and all will likely see time in the big leagues.

From the Twins standpoint, they have continued to add to a minor league system that is already very rich with young pitchers. Again, this is a good problem to have and with this depth, they can address their middle infield problem. With Santana gone now, the Twins rotation will look something like this:

1. Francisco Liriano, 24, LHP - 120 IP - 3.40 ERA - 130 K - 40 BB
2. Boof Bonser, 26, RHP - 180 IP - 4.40 ERA - 140 K - 60 BB
3. Kevin Slowey, 24, RHP - 160 IP - 3.90 ERA - 120 K - 40 BB
4. Scott Baker, 26, RHP - 140 IP - 4.40 ERA - 100 K - 40 BB
5. Philip Humber, 25, RHP - 140 IP - 4.60 ERA - 130 K - 50 BB

This isn’t going to be a rotation that will lead the Twins to an AL Central title in 2008 with so many young arms and Liriano coming back from an arm injury, but with more pitching prospects in the pipe-line–RHP Guerra and Mulvey as well as LHP Tyler Robertson, RHP Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship–there is depth there.

I actually like Gomez a lot despite his lack of power. His tools and athleticism are great as well as his advanced age. He has definitely been pushed along in the Mets farm system and has held up well. He should step in as the Mets centerfielder in 2008, removing the need to acquire a player like CF-S Coco Crisp from the Red Sox, although, with their depth, they still can too.

I like this move a lot from the Mets standpoint and they are now a very scary team in the National League. The Twins got a decent return in this trade and how they leverage their starting pitching depth will determine the success of this move for them.

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