Baseball Mastermind

As I mentioned in my Ten Key Players on NL Contenders, there may be no match-up in the MLB as close as the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. While the Cincinnati Reds are a sleeper to contend, they are merely that, a sleeper. How closely do these two teams match up? I will examine each team based on their respective rotations, bullpens, offenses and defeneses in order to determine who has the edge prior to the season starting.

Rotation

Chicago Cubs: 1. Carlos Zambrano, 2) Rich Hill, 3) Ted Lilly, 4) Jason Marquis, 5) John Lieber, 6) Sean Marshall, 7) Sean Gallagher.

Milwaukee Brewers: 1) Ben Sheets, 2) Jeff Suppan, 3) Yovani Gallardo, 4) Dave Bush, 5) Chris Capuano, 6) Manny Parra, 7) Carlos Villanuerva.

Edge: Chicago Cubs. The real difference for me is each teams #1-3 starters, where the Cubs have a huge edge in terms of stability. It’s hard to believe that Rich Hill is one year older than Carlos Zambrano, but that is about the Cubs mishandling of Hill (take a look at his minor league numbers) than his pitching ability. Rich Hill is a top breakout candidate in the NL this season following an excellent 2007 with 183/63 K/BB in 195 innings. Lilly made a nice adjustment transitioning from the AL to the NL and should be solid again in 2008.

Ben Sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, but the last time he was healthy was 2004. Yovani Gallardo is every bit as good as any young pitcher in the game and his performance, like most young pitchers will be dependent on his health. Still, Gallardo is the real deal. After that, in terms of skills, I’ll take Manny Parra–another guy who should have been promoted more aggressively–but he’s not even a lock to make the rotation. Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Chris Capuano are all solid, but unspectacular.

In the case of both teams, each team’s #6, 7 starters may be better than their #4, 5 starters. Lieber is a “veteran” and had success in Chicago winning 20 games in 2001, but with his age and lack of stuff, the Cubs would be lucky for any performance of value. I happen to like Sean Gallagher–he’ll step in and make an impact at some point in 2008.

Bullpen

Chicago Cubs: CL: Kerry Wood, SU: Carlos Marmol, SU: Bob Howry.

Milwaukee Brewers: CL: Eric Gagne, SU: Derrick Turnbow, SU: David Riske.

Edge: Chicago Cubs. Between these six, the Cubs have a small edge, but when each team’s middle relief is also considered, the Cubs advantage is even greater. The Brewers begin to get into trouble beyond these three and names like Guillermo Mota come into consideration. I think Eric Gagne will be fine as a closer–too much emphasis was placed on his failure with the Boston Red Sox down the stretch last season. Derrick Turnbow is filthy but volatile. What a great story it would be if Kerry Wood could make it as a closer. If he fails, Carlos Marmol is a good option.

Offense - Projected Starting Lineups

Chicago Cubs: 1) Alfonso Soriano, LF 2) Ryan Theriot, SS, 3) Kosuke Fukudome, RF, 4) Derek Lee, 1B, 5) Aramis Ramirez, 3B, 6) Geovany Soto, C, 7) Mark Derosa, 2B, 8 ) Felix Pie, CF.

Milwaukee Brewers: 1) Rickie Weeks, 2B, 2) J.J. Hardy, SS, 3) Ryan Braun, 3B, 4) Prince Fielder, 1B, 5) Corey Hart, RF, 6) Mike Cameron, CF, 7) Bill Hall, 3B, 8 ) Jason Kendall, C.

Edge: Milwaukee Brewers. This is a really tough call, but here’s how I break it down. The Brewers have two potential .950-1.000 OPS guys in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun and a third .900 guy in Corey Hart. The Cubs have two low-.900 OPS guys in Derek Lee if he has a return to form and hits 30+ home runs–I believe he will–and Aramis Ramirez. PECTO has Kosuke Fukudome as a .900 OPS guy in 2008. I’ve covered Fukudome in some depth and my opinion is he’d be better suited as a #2 hitter. The Brewers do have Jason Kendall though. The Cubs will also hamper themselves with their decision to bat two low on-base percentage guys in the #1, 2 spots. How much worse than Johnny Estrada will Kendall be in 2008? Potentially worse, if that’s imaginable. We may have to revisit this discussion if the Cubs pull the trigger on a Brian Roberts trade.

Defense

Edge: Chicago Cubs. Last season the Cubs ranked third in baseball in team defensive efficiency while the Brewers ranked 25th. Even with the Brewers bringing in Mike Cameron, they’re not going to bridge that gap. Then again, the Cubs did get a career year defensively from Aramis Ramirez, so who knows?

2008 Outlook: With the both teams looking comparable offensively, it will be pitching and defense that give the Cubs the edge. I have the Cubs winning the division with 86 wins over the Brewers, who I have winning 85 games. I really like the Brewers and the core of players they have and based on the closeness of my prediction, they have every chance of upsetting the Cubs. If Ben Sheets can remain healthy, or Rickie Weeks breaks out the way I’ve said he will all off-season (here it is: .270/.370/.500 26 home runs 25 stolen bases), they may slug their way to victory.

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