MLB Preview 2008: Top-30 Franchise Players - PART III
Posted by Alan Hull on March 30th, 2008
10. Chase Utley, 29-34, 2B-L. Chase Utley has established himself as the MLB’s best second baseman and it isn’t even close. Last season, while missing a month with a broken hand, Utley still managed to hit .332/.410/.566 with 22 home runs in 530 AB. Chase Utley is the only second baseman in all of baseball whose offense could play at any other position and he was the best defensive second baseman in the National League in 2007 (second in baseball) according to defensive zone rating at .874, which makes him that much more valuable than his peers. At age 29, his power may begin to decline in his early thirties but for the time being, Utley is a two-way player who is heads and shoulders above the rest of the second basemen in baseball.
9. Johan Santana, 29-34, LHP. Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and has been since joining the Twins rotation at the end of the 2003 season. Since then, Santana has won two Cy Coung Awards (there should have been a third in 2005) and he won the pitching triple crown for the Minnesota Twins in 2006 in a season where he very well could have been the MVP of the league. Now, Santana will have the opportunity to pitch for one of the best teams in baseball and in front of a strong defensive team with a good offense. Santana has every chance of posting some of the best numbers in his career over the next few seasons. Once he reaches his early thirties, he may begin to decline, but there’s no sign of that in sight.
8. Prince Fielder, 24-29, 1B-L. Prince Fielder became the youngest player to ever hit 50 home runs, while hitting .288/.395/.618 in 573 AB in 2007. Considering how much power Fielder has, his strikeout rate isn’t too bad and he should continue to be one of the best offensive players in baseball over the next six seasons during his peak. The biggest concern for Fielder is his weight (6′ 260 lbs.) and his poor defense which obviously stems from a lack of athleticism. I wouldn’t want to sign the guy as a free agent, but during his youth, he will be one of the league’s most feared hitters.
7. Alex Rodriguez, 32-37, 3B-R. Alex Rodriguez still has it and in 2007, he may have had one of the best seasons of his career on his way to his third American League MVP Award and his second 10-year contract (10-years $275 million). In 2006, many were counting A-Rod out and over the hill but he may have figured out whatever it was that was affecting him mentally and hit .314/.422/.645 with 54 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Rodriguez is older than any other player in the top thirty but with good reason–there is no slowing down in sight for Rodriguez and he should remain one of the most dominant hitters in baseball until his mid-to-late thirties. At that point, we will find out how good Alex Rodriguex really is as he will begin to approach some historical players like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds on the all-time home run list.
6. Hanley Ramirez, 24-29, SS-R. Hanley Ramirez was the best offensive player in the National League as measured as measured by VORP at 89.5 (second in baseball behind Alex Rodriguez at 96.6). Ramirez was the complete package offensively hitting .332/.386/.562 with 29 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 639 AB. There are only two problems with Hanley Ramirez at this stage in his career. First, in the short term, Ramirez is coming off October shoulder surgery on a torn labrum that may sap him of some of his power at the beginning of the 2008 season. This will have a minimal effect in the six year window. Second, Ramirez is a man without a position. Hanley Ramirez has posted massive numbers as a shortstop but he has also been one of the worst defensive shortstops in 2006-07. At some point, the Florida Marlins may have to explore a shift to third base or even center field in the near future.
5. Jose Reyes, 25-30, SS-B. Jose Reyes is the fastest player in the major leagues and while Hanley Ramirez has pulled away from Reyes offensively, Reyes has developed into one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Last season Reyes hit .280/.354/.421 with 12 homeruns and 78 stolen bases in 681 AB. Like much of the New York Mets 2007 team, Reyes faded badly down the stretch, but that may have been a result of all the wear and tear of stealing as many bases as he did. One thing to note is Reyes’ marked improvement in pitch recognition in the past two seasons, which is a product of hard work and maybe some of Rickie Henderson’s tutelage, but his walk totals have increased from 27 to 53 to 77 from 2005-07. The power Reyes demonstrated in 2006 may have been on the higher end of his spectrum but he figures to hit close to 15 home runs annually as well as providing the best overall package at shortstop in the game.
4. Grady Sizemore, 25-30, CF-L. Grady Sizemore has developed into one of the major league’s best all-around players hitting for average, power, drawing walks, stealing and providing great defense in center field. Last season, Sizemore had a down year when compared to his 2006 season, hitting .277/.390/.462 with 24 home runs and 33 stolen bases. The biggest concern for Sizemore is his strikeouts, as he whiffed 155 times last season and 153 in 2006. However, Sizemore also set a career high with 101 walks, which bodes well for his long-term success. Sizemore has also managed to play all 162 games each of the past two seasons, a testament to his athleticism and ability to remain healthy. How Sizemore’s power develops as he enters his peak - whether he will become a 30+ homerun hitter or remain a mid-20’s guy - will determine how Sizemore stacks up with the game’s best.
3. Miguel Cabrera, 25-30, 3B-R. Miguel Cabrera has been an offensive force unlike any we’ve seen in baseball since Albert Pujols debuted and at this time, there is no sign of him slowing down. In his major league career, Cabrera has hit .313/.388/.542 with 138 homeruns in his age 20-24 seasons with the Florida Marlins. Last season, Cabrera set a career high with 34 home runs while hitting .320/.401/.565 in 588 AB. Now that he’ll be hitting in a potent Detroit Tigers lineup, it will be interesting to see if his power improves with legitimate protection for the first time in his career. I also see Cabrera as a bit of a motivation guy, judging from complaints about his conditioning, so playing for a contender could lead to some monster numbers in the coming seasons. The only knock against Cabrera is his defense, which is poor, but his bat would play at first and the Tigers might be well-advised to move their $153 million investment to a less-demanding position, which would reduce injury risk as well.
2. David Wright, 25-30, 3B-R. David Wright keeps getting better and better, exceeding all expectations and in 2007, Wright set or tied career highs in games played (160), batting average (.325), on-base percentage (.416), slugging percentage (.546), home runs (30), doubles (42), stolen bases (34) and walks (94) - pretty much every meaningful offensive category. It’s impossible to expect Wright to continue at this pace, much less improve, but as of now, he pretty much does it all. I don’t see his power continuing to develop much but with his plate discipline and defense, which rates in the middle of the pack at third and should improve, he will remain one of the game’s best players as he enters his peak.
1. Albert Pujols, 28-33, 1B-R. Albert Pujols’ stock seems to have taken a bit of a hit following a 2007 season in which he failed to slug .600 for only the second time in his career as well as the possibility of Tommy John surgery on his torn elbow tendon. I argue Pujols was still the most valuable player in the National League in 2007 on account of his .429 on-base percentage as well as his defense, which is not only the best at his position, but arguably the best in the game. The way I see it, Albert Pujols made a mistake deciding to play in 2008 rather than opting for surgery - hopefully, there are no long-term effects - but once the Cardinals are out of the playoff picture in July-August, Pujols can get the surgery and be ready close to the beginning of the next season and as I see it, five and a half years of Pujols is still probably better than any player in the game.
Here is a summary of the list:
1. Albert Pujols
2. David Wright
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Grady Sizemore
5. Jose Reyes
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Prince Fielder
9. Johan Santana
10. Chase Utley
11. Ryan Braun
12. Joe Mauer
13. Jake Peavy
14. Ryan Howard
15. C.C. Sabathia
16. Felix Hernandez
17. Troy Tulowitzki
18. Ryan Zimmerman
19. Chris B. Young
20. Brandon Webb
21. Justin Upton
22. Scott Kazmir
23. B.J. Upton
24. Robinson Cano
25. Carlos Beltran
26. Matt Kemp
27. Jay Bruce
28. Curtis Granderson
29. Mark Teixeira
30. Cole Hamels
It’s interesting to note that of all teams, the New York Mets have four players in the top thirty and three in the top ten. That was one of the reasons I cited for picking them as this year’s World Series winner. The Diamondbacks and Phillies have three players apiece. The Brewers, Indians, Tigers, Rays and Yankees have two players. The defending champion Boston Red Sox have none.
There were seven pitchers, eleven corner players and twelve middle of the diamond players present.
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August 25th, 2008 (2 weeks ago) at 10:32 pm
[…] much food for thought. It was one I emulated along with Andrew this past off-season in writing my Top-30 Franchise Players […]