Rotogod Says: Hot and Slow Starts, Buy or Sell? Fantasy Baseball 2008
Posted by Rotogod on April 15th, 2008
Rotogod here. As I covered yesterday in more general terms, the beginning of the season is a volatile time for fantasy baseball owners and a few mistakes can cost an owner a title. My first rule was to avoid trades, at least until the first month of play is over. Having said that, I’ve also seen good players dropped and some bad players picked up off waivers as owners too quickly buy into early performance.
Today, I want to talk about some players who have either gotten off to red-hot or ice-cold starts and to what extent you should buy into these starts. Remember to know your players’ history. Stars don’t usually come out of nowhere.
This list will generally pertain to deeper leagues, so some of these guys may even be available in mixed public leagues.
Don’t Believe the Hype
4. Jack Cust, 29, LF/1B-L, OAK: Before the 2008 season started, I had Jack Cust as my #1 player who would collapse this season. The collapse is already in progress as Cust is hitting .114 with one home run in his first 35 at bats. Don’t get me wrong, Cust is a good player in real baseball as he provides some power and quite a bit of on-base percentage to his team, but as a guy who’s going to hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .230 with 20 home runs in a bad lineup and only against right handed pitching, he isn’t an asset to a fantasy baseball team. You don’t get much credit for walks in fantasy baseball.
3. David Ortiz, 32, 1B-L, BOS: On the flip-side, much is being made of David Ortiz’s .113 batting average through his first 53 at bats. As a spectral-opposite to Cust, Ortiz is a great hitter who hits in a great lineup and in a great ballpark. Ortiz has been pressing as he tries to break out of his funk and has begun swinging at pitches outside of the zone. That doesn’t happen too much with “Big Papi.” It is only a matter of time before he gets into a groove and when he does, no one will remember his first 53 at bats.
2. A.J. Burnett, 31, RHP, TOR: The Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation has been stellar so far this season, with the exception of A.J. Burnett who has pitched 16.1 innings with a 6.61 ERA while striking out 7 and walking 5. Health concerns have always been a big knock against Burnett, but there is one x-factor at play that most may be unaware of: Burnett has an opt-out clause in his contract, allowing him to become a free agent after the 2008 season. AND Burnett’s agent has already informed the Blue Jays’ front office that he intends on exercising his clause if he has a big year. My #1 rule for predicting breakouts among veterans: never bet against money.
1. Brian Bannister, 27, RHP, KC: Brian Bannister has gotten off to a nice start, winning his first three decisions, pitching 21 innings with a .86 ERA, striking out 13 and walking 5. Bannister impressed the hell out of me in an interview where he demonstrated a great understanding for statistics in baseball, particularly, the role of chance in pitching. That’s great, the guy seems very, very smart. The only problem is, knowing that isn’t going to save him from his lack of stuff. It will take a lot of luck for Bannister to finish with an ERA below 4.00 and I think even that’s generous.
Start Hot, Stay Hot
4. Mike Jacobs, 27, 1B-L, FLA: Jacobs has hit .320 with 5 home runs and 11 RBI in his first 50 at bats. While Jacobs is a player who will likely be platooned at first, that power is very real as he has hit 20 and 17 home runs, respectively, in the past two seasons and will be entering his peak, so a jump to the mid-to-high twenties is very possible. The biggest source of concern is that Jacobs has always had poor patience (he’s only walked 3 times so far in 2008), so he could also wind up underachieving as he has to some extent in his career.
3. Zack Greinke, 24, RHP, KC: On the flip-side of Bannister, Zack Greinke has gotten off to a hot start, also winning all three of his starts pitching 24 innings with a .75 ERA, striking out 9 and walking 5. Looking at Greinke’s K/BB ratio and K/9, one might not figure him to continue to succeed but at his age and with his track record (major league career K/BB just under three), Greinke is a nice break-out candidate in 2008.
2. Nate McLouth, 26, CF-L, PIT: Nate McClouth has been on fire, hitting .391 with 2 home runs, 2 stolen bases, driving in 14 and scoring 12 in his first 64 at bats. I don’t think McLouth’s high batting average will continue as he is a high strikeout guy, but he will hit for power and continue to steal bases as he gets on base well. I think McLouth is a solid bet to hit close to 20 home runs and steal 30 bases if he continues to succeed and continues to lead-off against lefties.
1. Johnny Cueto, 23, RHP, CIN: Johnny Cueto has taken the baseball world by storm in his first three starts, pitching 19 innings with a 3.72 ERA, striking out 24 and walking only 1. Cueto’s minor league control numbers have been superb as well - he owns a 4.37 K/BB ratio and a 9.26 K/9. There are two concerns to be aware of: 1) Pitching in Great American Ballpark will keep his ERA up (he’s given up 4 home runs so far in 2008) and 2) pitching for Dusty Baker, he may be over-worked in the first half of the season and either fade or break-down in the second half. This guy is the real deal.
Sphere: Related Content
April 16th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Johnny Cueto will join Mark Prior and Kerry Wood on the “Dusty ruined my pitching career list” after throwing 320 innings this year.
April 16th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Lol, Vince. Only 320?
May 19th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
[…] here. Since the last time I wrote about hot and slow starts, some things have changed. For one, Brian Bannister no longer has […]