Rotogod Says: Sleepers, Deep Sleepers - Fantasy Baseball 2008
Posted by Rotogod on February 27th, 2008
Rotogod here. The fantasy baseball season is just around the corner and I’m sure you’re all thinking about your respective drafts, auctions or whatnot. I’ve covered flukes, injuries and rookies and for next week, I’m working on 2008 Rookies and Potential Impact II, as that piece as by far the most well received of any piece I’ve done to date.
Today, I’m going to talk a bit bout 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers and deep sleepers. A good fantasy baseball manager enters a draft with list of players they have deemed to be undervalued or primed for a breakout and will target said players. The key is to not overvalue your sleepers, but there’s a fine line between where you value your sleepers and where the rest of your league does. If some over-excited fanboy takes Rickie Weeks in the third round of your draft, don’t sweat it, the value he had is diminished because he has to produce like a third-rounder just to break even.
Rotogods Unbeatable Rules of Fantasy Baseball: Find players that you believe will be undervalued or overlooked by the rest of the league (your sleepers), and take them at a value spot. Do not fall in love and overvalue a sleeper because that defeats the point.
I will run through a short list of sleepers and deep sleepers for those who play in deeper, more advanced mixed leagues and why I like their chances in 2008.
Sleepers
4. Ty Wiggington, 2B/3B-R, HOU: Wiggington will enter 2008 as the Astros starting third baseman. For the last two seasons, Wiggington has hit 24 and 22 home runs, respectively. At third, those numbers are passable at best, but his 2007 total were tied for fourth with Chase Utley. After playing 39 games for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2007, he should qualify for second in most leagues and batting behind Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee, he’ll get a lot of RBI opportunities.
3. Joakim Soria, RHP, KC: Soria managed to fly under the radar in 2007, closing 17 games for the Kansas City Royals, but the Rule-V pick had fantastic numbers, pitching 69 innings with 75:19 K/BB ratio, demonstrating plus command for a hard-thrower. The Royals are not much better than they were in 2007, but I’d still look for between 25-30 saves from Soria who may not get as much hype as a lot of the other closers, but still is better than the Joe Borowski, Todd Jones-type closers in terms of ERA and strikeouts.
2. Jeremy Hermida, RF-L, FL: As recently as 2006, Hermida was Baseball America’s #4 prospect. In his major league debut he scuffled with injuries and was forgotten. Last season Hermida hit .296 with 18 home runs in 429 AB, demonstrating the power and patience many saw in him. While he may be overlooked playing in Florida, Hermida is the real deal.
1. Lastings Milledge, CF-R, WAS: Milledge is, in my opinion, this season’s Curtis Granderson. By that I mean he will be a surprise 20-20 guy. However, Milledge is even better than Granderson longterm as he is now entering his age 23 season, where Granderson was 26 last season. Milledge has a strong minor league track record, always playing at advanced levels for his age as the Mets are an organization that rushes its prospects. This season, he is getting a fresh chance in Washington and the good news is, the Nationals are moving out of cavernous RFK Stadium to a more neutral ballpark. I expect BIG things from Milledge and Mets fans will be shaking their heads for years (think: Scott Kazmir).
Deep Sleepers
4. Jason Bartlett, SS-R, TB: Here is an important piece of advice: The deeper the league and the more positions taken, the less important position scarcity is. With weaker positions such as second base and shortstop, a good strategy might be to get cheap steals late in a draft rather than going for pop early. Bartlett falls into that strategy nicely as he will be Tampa Bay’s starting shortstop in 2008 and in the last season, he stole 23 bases. Not too shabby. Batting lower in the order, he will neither score or drive in a whole lot of runs, but Bartlett has a .272 Major league batting average and will probably hit around .280 in 2008.
3. Adam Lind, LF-L, TOR: Lind had a rough rookie campaign, only managing to hit .238 with 11 home runs in 290 AB’s in 2008. Still, with a career .316/.377/.505 minor league career, Lind, entering his age 24 season, has proven he can hit. Lind may not yet be a major power threat yet, but a .290 average and 20 home runs are not only realistic, they are likely.
2. Michael Bourn, CF-L, HOU: More cheap steals. Bourn was traded to Houston from Philadelphia in the Brad Lidge deal this past off-season. Bourn is a speedster who stole 18 bases playing as a reserve for the Phillies last season and stole 45 in 2006 between AA and AAA. With guys like Jacoby Ellsbury getting a lot of hype, Bourn may be a cheaper alternative but with every bit the opportunity to provide 30+ steals. If the Astros bat Bourn lead-off, he may not drive in a lot of runs and depending on whether Hunter Pence or Kaz Matsui bats second, he may not score as many runs as he could, but he will be given the green light and he will rack up the steals.
1. Anthony Reyes, RHP, STL: Reyes shows what going 2-14 can do to a kid. Reyes was Baseball America’s #41 prospect in 2006 and managed to pitch well for the Cardinals in the World Series that season, but failed to catch his stride in for a weak Cardinals team in 2007 and was the victim of poor run support. Reyes, now 26, still has a chance to be a solid starter and his minor league track record, which features a minor league strikeout to walk ratio of over 5:1 should be alright, if not better in 2008.
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February 25th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I agree with you standings, but ARE YOU NUTS about the world series?
You must be an east coaster…always new york and boston…blah blah blah.
Try the Angels vs Dodgers in the world series with the Angels winning in 6.
Secretly I am counting on another Mets meltdown, inexperience manager of the yankees and red sox falling back to the pack with an older ortiz, ramirez and schilling.
Sincerely
A West Coast Baseball Fan
February 25th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Thanks for the comment. Truthfully, I’m a proud West-Coaster and a die-hard Dodgers fan. I’m planning on betting the Dodgers to win the World Series this season, not the Mets, but if I went through and made one homer-pick after another, this site would have to be called “Dodger Mastermind.”
Thanks again and I’ll take Dodgers over Angels in 7 on account of a Russell Martin home run again K-Rod.
February 29th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
I know Yankees arent projected to win their division but i think the Yankees will pull it off this year and win their division provided a healthy rotation. They’re already the number one offensive team in the bigs and their pitching is looking a lot better this year. Boston however, hasnt changed much . The only difference is they’re another year older and might not be able to rely on manny; not to mention schilling is done for half the season. So I have Yanks winning the division and boston easily winning wild card.By the way, the angels are going nowhere. No way do they make the world series let alone win it. Also the dodgers have made improvements but you’ve still have to deal with getting by the diamondbacks and the rockies will still be pushing to win the division.
February 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Oh yea forgot to mention even with santana, the world series seems a little out of reach for the mets dont you think??
February 29th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
The Yankees have a good team too. The biggest knock against them is that they’re getting old where guys like Damon, Matsui and Abreu are no longer locks to be plus offensive contributors. Also, the rotation is deep, but young so they’re exposed to injuries. The bullpen is mediocre.
I don’t know if you have heard this but in the entire history of the 8-team playoff structure, the better team (as measured by regular season wins) has won less than 50% of the time. Basically, once you make it into the playoffs, its almost a crappshoot.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 am
the 2006 Cardinals was almost indisputablly the WOREST of the 8 team to make it… yuck.
a lot of weird things can happen in the playoff yeah. it’s a crap shoot.
theorically speaking if they somehow manage to find a magic beanes to cure Pedro they’d have a pretty scary 1/2 punch in the playoff though.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
I agree. I even like them #1-5 with John Maine, Oliver Perez and El Duque rounding out the rear. Not to mention, an offensive and defensive attack led by Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran–three of the 20 best players in all of baseball–looks like a winner to me.
March 4th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
boston will beat any nl team and win for the 3rd time in 5 yrs and the first team to win back to back world series 21st century. need schilling in 2nd half & playoffs.he is great in the clutch. Matsuzaka will improve to 18 wins. buchholz,lester,and wakefield with beckett will attain 100 wins.manny & big papi are the best 3/4 hitting tandem in baseball & will have a last hurrah in ‘08.look for ellsbury to be rookie of the year.Yankees? too old.Mussina is shot.Wang looked terrible in post season.matsui & damon too old & injured.Abreu getting old and not great in rf. pick toronto for 2nd place because of their excellent starting staff
March 5th, 2008 at 9:46 am
How can anyone discount the Tigers? Their Offense will be the best in baseball, easily. Their pitching is good enough, especially with new workhorse Willis. And I am not saying this because I am a DET fan. I follow the Red Sox, and I hope they repeat. But if I had to put money on it, from an objective viewpoint, I would say the Tigers to win it all in 2008.
March 9th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Well dan nyc has some high hopes for them bosox huh. It must be different in boston their guys dont’t get older or something cause im pretty sure Manny and Big Pappi are both a year older too. and as for the buchholz,lester,and wakefield with beckett getting over 100 wins your absolutely crazy. The only thing that is for sure is that only time will tell!!!
March 16th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
I agree with alot with what you projected, but i think alot of people are nuts when they say that the A’s are going to be last in their division. They are looking really good and towards the end of the season why alot of their prospects in there and alot of injuries that played a big role, A’s were winning. As long as the A’s dont get hit with the injury bug and Seattle gets hit, the A’s should be #2 in their division.
March 18th, 2008 at 10:06 am
As an indians fan i hate to admit it but the tigers look like the best team all around right now….but dont count out my tribe :) theyre a talented team. With the best 1/2 in the league with CC and fausto
March 22nd, 2008 at 12:24 am
I am a huge fan of baseball and a huge fan of the national league style of play. Everyone loves a home run, but small ball is the way to go. There are few American league teams that play small ball, but the team I really like this year is the Seattle Mariners. With the addition of Bedard, Silva, Cairo, and Wilkerson. I see alot of good pitching and alot of situational hitting. I believe that this team has made the biggest improvement of any team in baseball, and to think to that they are only going to gt 83 wins this year seems not likely. They won 88 games last year and that was with Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, and Ryan Fierabend as highly used starters. Replace those with Bedard and Silva and you have more then replaced three very bad pitchers, you have added a legitimate ace and an innings eater. With there awesome bullpen, and J.J. Putz closing down the games. I see more then 88 wins, I see a playoff run. I have never been a huge Mariners fan but I know a talented and scary team when I see one. Look out American League West, Mariners are going to open a few eyes this year. Of course Boston is my team and I love them dearly. Mariners can not match there firepower, but I think they are gonna turn a few heads this year and suprise a lot of people.
March 30th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
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