Baseball Mastermind

Simply put, I wanted to go on the record and state that the Evan Longoria extension was absolutely brilliant. The terms are for six guaranteed years at $17.5 million, plus a one-year option for 2014 and a two-year option for 2015-16, which could raise the total value to nine-years and $44 million, securing the third baseman through his age 30 season. In doing so, the Rays no longer have to worry about keeping Longoria’s arbitration clock down and can get him into their everyday lineup in the short-term, having secured him through all of his club-controlled seasons and possibly beyond. The downside, which is almost nil, as Andrew of True Blue LA put it: “Even if Longoria gets hurt today and never plays another game, the Rays are only out 2.8 million dollars a year for the life of the contract, or one less journeyman middle reliever a year.” There is almost no downside.

The upside of this deal is undeniable as they have given themselves the opportunity to have a superstar-level player for all of his best seasons. Assuming Longoria remains healthy and they exercise both options, they will pay Longoria an average of $4.89 Million per season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA thinks of Longoria being worth an average of 6.5 WARP for the next seven seasons, which translates to $105,550,000 million MORP (or Marginal Value Above Replacement Player). The projection doesn’t extend beyond seven seasons, but you get the idea. Not only that, the projection sees Longoria as a .270/.350/.475-type player, hitting between 23-29 home runs per season, which I see as a bit of a pessimistic outlook given his excellent plate discipline and pure hitting ability. In the end, if Longoria develops into a fraction of the type of player he can develop into, this contract will be a steal beyond even the Mets’ extension with David Wright, worth $55 million over six years.

Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Freidman, is thinking outside the box in order to keep his young core of players intact and this truly demonstrates a commitment to winning, not just of the nominal sort. In the past, the Rays have given contract extensions to their young players like Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli, which have both proven to be solid moves, despite Baldelli’s injuries. This past off-season, the Rays extended James Shields and Carlos Pena. At this stage, it may be too late to do so, but they still have some chance of extending B.J. Upton and Scott Kazmir, but even if they fail to do so, the Rays are at a juncture right now as they have such a wealth of talent on the verge of making major contributions and they are taking themselves very seriously.

The Tampa Bay Rays have done something unprecedented, signing a player who has less than one year of experience to an extension and this kind of genius may not catch on right away. I doubt the Cincinnati Reds will be clamoring to extend Jay Bruce, although they might be wise to consider it.

Not even Theo Epstein nor Billy Beane nor Mark Shapiro have attempted something like this, although maybe Longoria was just the right kind of player, where, of those three General Managers I’ve named, only Mark Shapiro had a player worthy of such an early commitment when he locked up Grady Sizemore to his record six-year $23.45 million deal.

This is an exciting time to be a Rays fan.

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