MLB Preview 2008: Top-30 Franchise Players - PART II
Posted by Alan Hull on March 27th, 2008
Today, I will continue with my Top-30 Franchise Players list covering #20-11. Tomorrow, the Top 10.
20. Brandon Webb, 29-34, RHP. Brandon Webb has demonstrated the effectiveness of combining a power sinker with a plus curve ball and has established himself as one of the most effective and efficient starters in the league with a career 7.27 K/9 and a 64% ground ball percentage in five seasons. Webb has improved in innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA each of the last four seasons, including a career high 236.1 innings, 194 strikeouts and 3.01 ERA despite pitching in the Arizona heat in 2007. As long as Webb continues to remain healthy, he will be one of the most effective starters in baseball and should age well on the strength of his sinker which may be the best in the game.
19. Chris B. Young, 24-29, CF-R. Chris Young was three stolen bases away from becoming the first 30-30 rookie in the history of the game, demonstrating both the power and athleticism many knew he would have but concerns about his strike zone control were also confirmed as Young hit only .237 with 141/43 K/BB ratio. While his contact hitting skills should see some improvement in 2008, he may never be a .300 hitter but he will always hit for power and should settle in as a .270/.350/.500 type player with a chance at 30-30 every season. His defense was also highly regarded in the minor leagues and will gradually improve as well.
18. Ryan Zimmerman, 23-28, 3B-R. Ryan Zimmerman already has two pretty solid offensive seasons in RFK Stadium sporting a career .282/.343/.469 line and looks poised for a breakout now that he will be moving to a less extreme pitcher’s ballpark in 2008. The biggest concern with Zimmerman is his fairly low career on-base percentage, but he has drawn 61 walks each of the last two seasons, which is hardly bad and that area of his game should improve steadily. Zimmerman is one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball adding three wins per season on defense alone, keeping his value consistently very high.
17. Troy Tulowitzki, 23-28, SS-R. As the best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2007, Troy Tulowitzki should have been the National League Rookie of the Year over Ryan Braun–not the best career, but the award. Even if he wasn’t playing in Coors Field, Tulowitzki would be one of the most valuable defensive players in the game and his hitting may improve as he enters his peak. This season he will hit second, much like his idol Derek Jeter and the league will find out how well he really hits over the course of the season.
16. Felix Hernandez, 22-27, RHP. There has been criticism that Felix Hernandez has yet to become the ace that many envision in him, but in doing so, these critics have failed to keep things in perspective. Hernandez owns a 3.94 MLB career ERA with a 418/136 K/BB ratio in 465.2 innings as well as a 62% groundball percent and he is younger than both Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz, the top pitching prospects in the game. This up-coming six year age window represents King Felix’s “golden years” and he has the potential to become the best pitcher in the game as along as he can remain healthy. This season, Hernandez will be allowed to throw his slider, his best secondary pitch, for the first time in his big league career so look for that to be a key in his breakout this season.
15. C.C. Sabathia, 27-32, LHP. C.C. Sabathia won his first Cy Young Award in 2007 pitching a career high 241 innings with a career high 3.21 ERA, 209 strikeouts, 37 walks and 19 wins. His control is better than it has ever been and Sabathia may wind up performing as well as any pitcher in the game moving forward as his 6′7″ 290 lbs frame can handle a greater workload than most other pitchers in the game. Many consider the 300 game winner to be extinct. If anyone can do it, Sabathia has an outside chance with 100 wins through his first seven seasons and is now just entering his peak.
14. Ryan Howard, 28-33, 1B-L. Ryan Howard followed up his monster 2006 MVP season with a season more reasonable considering how often he strikes out, finishing .268/.392/.584 with 47 home runs in 529 AB with a 199/107 K/BB ratio. With his size and lack of athleticism, he may not age well, but in the next three or four seasons, he should remain one of the league’s prolific sluggers and has a shot at another couple 50 home run seasons. If he becomes a designated hitter once he finishes in Philadelphia, he may have a similar career arc with David Ortiz although Howard strikes out almost twice as often as Ortiz and this may lead to an early decline.
13. Jake Peavy, 27-32, RHP. Jake Peavy is one of the few starting pitchers in baseball who combines high innings totals with even greater strikeout totals, finishing 2007 with a 2.54 ERA in a career high 223.1 innings pitched and 240/68 K/BB ratio. Peavy has now pitched greater than 200 innings in each of the past three seasons and seems to have put the arm trouble of his early career behind him and will remain one of the most dominant starters in baseball for many years. Last season, Peavy only allowed 169 hits and 13 home runs, both of which will be unsustainable, but Peavy remains the best candidate to win the ERA title in baseball every season and should remain so for foreseeable future.
12. Joe Mauer, 25-30, C-L. Joe Mauer was Nate Silver’s #2 MVP last season, a contention I disagreed with at the time but understood. Mauer is the complete package with excellent hitting ability and even greater defensive ability–last season Mauer threw out 53% of would-be base stealers. His pure hitting ability has always been advanced and with his strike zone control, his size and swing, he has a great chance of becoming a 20+ home run hitting catcher, which would make him easily the best offensive catcher in the league and maybe one of the best offensive players in baseball. The big issue for Mauer will be health, which has hampered his development so far in his career. If he can remain healthy, we may be looking at a catcher the likes of which the MLB has never seen before.
11. Ryan Braun, 24-29, LF-R. Ryan Braun had a heck of an offensive season as a rookie, breaking the rookie slugging percentage record, hitting .324/.370/.634 with 34 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 451 AB. Braun will be in his prime in the next six seasons and should easily be one of the best offensive players in baseball over that span. The only concern in 2007 was a 112/29 K/BB ratio but Braun didn’t walk because he didn’t need to. We will see in 2008 how good Braun really is when the league gets a greater chance to exploit any possible weaknesses. I still see an easy .300/.360/.550 season with 35 home runs and that represents a bottom prediction as I see it. One thing that has not been discussed is the possibility of Braun developing into an average left fielder. With his natural athleticism and speed, I’m of the opinion he will learn the position and even excel there.
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